Marlins vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Friday, September 2 (Is Alcantara's Dominance in Question?)

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22)
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves are still just three games back of the New York Mets for first place in the NL East, and have a chance to keep pace with a weekend series against the Miami Marlins in Atlanta. However, it won't be easy in Game 1 with Sandy Alcantara on the mound for the Fish. 

Veteran right-hander Charlie Morton makes his 26th start for the Braves.

Do oddsmakers expect the likely NL Cy Young Winner to get the help he needs on the road?

Here are the latest odds for tonight's game:

Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Marlins vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Charlie Morton is beginning to fade in his age 38 season with a 4.10 ERA. Excluding the shortened 2020 season, this is the first time his ERA is north of four since 2016, a year before his renaissance in Houston. His curveball just isn’t playing the same way it used to with a run value of -4 compared to -22 a year ago and -27 in 2019.

We have seen other former aces who have lost their best stuff, and it shows in the decreased run value of their best pitch. Lance Lynn’s four-seam fastball with the Chicago White Sox is a great example this year. 

Morton can still be effective, but he is far from dominant and the Braves are only 13-12 in his starts this year despite their stellar record overall. 

Sandy Alcantara does have the dominant pitch and is in his prime. Alcantara’s changeup has a -16 run value which is top 10 in the league, but we have seen that pitch slip from well over -20 all the way down to where it is now as we’ve watched Alcantara’s ERA climb north of two.

He is still having a fantastic season and is a massive favorite for Cy Young, but I think there is an opportunity to fade him a bit. 

PICK: Over 7 (+100)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE