Marlins vs. Cardinals prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 18 (Trust Miami against left-handed pitching)

There is one key stat driving betting value on the Marlins on Tuesday.
Jul 17, 2023; St. Louis, Missouri, USA;  Miami Marlins left fielder Bryan De La Cruz (14) hits a
Jul 17, 2023; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Bryan De La Cruz (14) hits a / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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The Miami Marlins have dropped all four games out of the All-Star break as the team tries to hang onto its NL Wild Card standing.

Miami will look to get back on track Tuesday against the Cardinals after losing the opening game of the series 6-4. The team will start Edward Cabrera for the first time in over a month in this one against a Cardinals team that counters with left hander Jordan Montgomery.

The Marlins have had great success against lefties all season, will that continue on Tuesday?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Marlins vs. Cardinals odds, run line and total

Marlins vs. Cardinals prediction and pick

The Cardinals are 12 games under .500 and have struggled all year, 24-28 as favorites. The team has constantly struggled to perform to oddsmakers expectations after winning the NL Central last year, and I believe we'll see it again on Tuesday for this key reason:

  • The Marlins are the best hitting team in Major League Baseball against left handed pitching, .313 on the year.

Montgomery draws the start for the Cards on Tuesday, on a string of four earned runs across his last four starts, but his xERA is far higher than his actual ERA, going from 3.23 to 4.04 this season.

Miami has the hitting profeciency to match the Cardinals lineup that features the likes of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, but can outpace St. Louis when we get into the later stages of the game with the Cardinals having the sixth highest bullpen ERA this season.

St. Louis continues to be overrated, take Miami as an underdog.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.