Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Saturday, June 18 (Braxton Garrett Arrives)

The 43-23 New York Mets have won four of their last five games as they host the 28-34 Miami Marlins this afternoon at 4:10 PM EST.

Miami won five straight before promptly losing four of their last five. Braxton Garrett hopes to right the ship today in his third start of the year. He threw six scoreless innings, allowing just one hit, against the Astros last week, though got roughed up by the Giants in his first outing.

Taijuan Walker pitches for the Mets after holding the Angels to one run over six innings in his last start. He's 4-2 with a 3.08 ERA on the season, though his underlying metrics suggest he's been a bit lucky.

Can his luck continue as New York stays hot or will Garrett build off his win over Houston to deliver Miami a victory?

To analyze this Marlins vs Mets matchup, here are the odds from our friends at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Marlins: +1.5 (-135)
• Mets: -1.5 (+112)

Moneyline:

• Marlins: +155
• Mets: -170

Total:

• 8.0 (Over +100/Under -120)

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Already boasting one of the best young pitching staffs in the league, the Marlins may have found another quality prospect in Braxton Garrett:

The former first-round pick was electric against the Astros, showcasing a dominant slider and fastball with tremendous command. He issued one walk and allowed one hit over six scoreless innings and gets a huge test against a potent Mets lineup today.

I think he'll pass with flying colors. New York is only 16th in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last two weeks and Garrett has some nasty stuff. His slider has an opponent's expected batting average of .200 and a whiff rate over 34%, but it's Garrett's fastball that could really propel him to success.

Sitting in the low 90s, that fastball doesn't have a ton of velocity but instead relies on downward movement to fool batters. Garrett hasn't allowed a single hit with it this year and it's 46.2% whiff rate is an elite number.

Taijuan Walker has been great himself, but his 3.96 expected ERA suggests his 3.08 actual ERA is a bit of a mirage. The Marlins are sixth in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks and should be able to scratch some runs on the board.

Thus, I love the value on Miami as underdogs here. The Mets have won 10 straight as a home favorite but Garrett has the goods to keep them hanging around, at which point their superior defense can steal the game.

But I also like the under. It's 6-1 in Walker's last seven starts and there's heavy winds blowing in from the outfield, mitigating the Mets' power advantage. With Garrett's ability to prevent hard contact with his pitch movement, he's better equipped to take advantage of the conditions.

Pick: Marlins (+155) and Under 8.0 (-120)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.