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Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Friday, July 8 (Total Too Low With Lopez and Bassit Pitching)

By Matt De Saro

New York Mets v Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets v Cincinnati Reds / Dylan Buell/GettyImages
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Two NL East rivals are set to do battle this afternoon at Citi Field when the New York Mets host the Miami Marlins. The Mets continue to lead the division but things are beginning to tighten up with the Braves just a couple of games off the lead.

New York has been rather average lately and is in danger of losing that top spot over the weekend if they have a bad showing in this series. Considering the Marlins entered this series with a 5-2 record against the Amazins, this might not go smoothly for New York this weekend. 

Here are the odds for this game with odds from consensus sportsbooks. 

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Marlins: +1.5 (-165)
  • Mets: -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline:

  • Marlins: +135
  • Mets: -155

Total:

  • Total 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

I like what I saw from Pablo Lopez on Sunday when he three-hit the Nationals on the road over 6 ⅓ innings. It was a nice bounce back after his previous start in St Louis where he gave up five runs in five innings.

Still, Lopez did give up two runs to Washington and now has 13 earned runs over his last four starts combined. One of those starts was against the Mets and was perhaps his worst start of the year. Lopez surrendered seven runs, six earned, in 5 ⅓ innings in a messy loss.

Looking over Lopez’s career numbers against New York, I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again. In 102 at-bats, Lopez has a dreadful batting average of .341 with an OPS of .907. Need some more convincing? Lopez’s ERA at Citi Field is horrific at 10.13 with an OBA of .333. 

While you may be waiting for me to say that I’m siding with the Mets at home due to all the issues with Lopez. But, with Chris Bassit on the mound, that ain’t happening.

First of all, he's sick and may not even make this start. So we get a short-notice spot start or a sick guy with an ERA over 4.00. 

Two of the last three games these teams have played hit eight runs and I see a similar situation on the horizon this afternoon. 

Pick: OVER 7.5 (-110)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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