Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 10 (Sandy Alcantara Gives Miami Value as Underdogs)

The New York Mets host the Miami Marlins today in Game 3 of their four-game weekend series.

The Mets came out of the gate hot and smoked the Marlins 10-0 in the opener, only to follow it up with a dud in Game 2. The Marlins are not a great team by any means, but the Mets have been struggling and are losing a lot of ground in the NL East race. Not that the Marlins have a chance to catch them. But, if things continue this way for New York, the Braves will take over the division lead.

How will things shake out today? Here are the odds for this game from consensus sportsbooks.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

• Marlins: +1.5 (-175)
• Mets: -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline:

• Marlins: +115
• Mets: -135

Total:

• Total 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

This could be the best pitching matchup of the day with Sandy Alcantara (9-3) and Taijuan Walker (7-2) doing battle at Citi Field.

While the Mets are the better overall team by a wide margin, Alcantara is a candidate to break out and win the NL Cy Young. The right-hander is third in MLB in ERA (1.82), fifth in WHIP (0.91), and 10th in strikeouts (107). And, he’s been getting even better if you can believe it.

His last time on the mound, Alcantara hurled eight innings of two-hit ball against the Angels. It’s hard to bet against one of the best pitchers in the league, but playing for the Marlins does help. Despite Alcantara’s impressive stats, the Marlins are 2-2 in his last four starts with both losses coming against NL East opponents. 

While Alcantara was almost perfect in his previous start, the same cannot be said for Walker. He was roughed up by the Reds on Monday with three earned runs over six innings. Not terrible mind you, but the Reds are awful and don’t usually find success against top-tier pitching.

I also worry about Walker’s career numbers against the current Marlins’ lineup. With a .287 batting average in 96 at-bats, Walker has clearly struggled with this group. Alcantara, meanwhile, has a .163 BAA when facing this Mets’ roster in 180 total at-bats. 

The Mets are in a bit of a funk right now and I’m going to try and take advantage of it. Besides, I can’t pass up the chance to bet on Alcantara at plus money odds. 

Pick: Marlins +115

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE