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Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 3 (Bet on Pablo Lopez to Rebound Against Shaky Lineup)

By Matt De Saro

Miami Marlins v St. Louis Cardinals
Miami Marlins v St. Louis Cardinals / Joe Puetz/GettyImages
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The Washington Nationals almost pulled out of their extended funk this week with three wins in a row over the Rangers and Pirates.

Not exactly the toughest opponents, but any win is a big deal for the fifth-place Nats. But, they fell right back in trouble, losing back-to-back games and giving up a combined 14 runs against the Pirates and Marlins. They get a third chance at Miami this afternoon but the Marlins have proven they know how to beat this team. 

Here are the odds for this game from consensus sportsbooks.  

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Marlins: -1.5 (+135)
  • Nationals: +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline:

  • Marlins: -165
  • Nationals: +140

Total:

  • Total 9 (Over -105/Under -115)

Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

I look at pitchers like Pablo Lopez and wonder what it's like being a great pitcher on a bad team. I suspect that as the year drags on, the will to win just isn’t quite as big as when the season began. 

It would explain why somebody as good as Lopez went from having a 0.39 ERA in April to a 5.43 ERA in June. Over the course of his last five games, Lopez has allowed four or more runs to score three times. This includes Monday night’s five-run game against the Cardinals. Lopez struck out five, but gave up two home runs and was pulled in the fifth inning. Needless to say, he hasn’t been sharp lately.

He’s also struggled against this lineup over the course of his career. The current Nationals are hitting .271 against Lopez in 94 total at-bats with a .805 OPS. 

And now we come to Erick Fedde. The Nationals starter differs from Lopez because Fedde has been bad all season long. At least we know what we are getting with him. Expect 3-4 runs most nights with few strikeouts and many walks. In June, Feddes’ K:BB ratio was an abysmal 11:17 over 26 ⅔ innings. With a 6-12 record over their last 18 games, it almost doesn’t matter who is pitching for Washington at this point. 

While I do worry about Lopez, the Nationals are a perfect team to bounce back against. Miami was 7-1 against them before the start of this series and already took a Game 1 win. 

Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+135)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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