Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, April 27 (Marlins Being Disrespected)
By Joe Summers
We've got a matchup of two squads going in opposite directions as the 6-13 Washington Nationals host the 8-8 Miami Marlins tonight at 7:05 PM EST.
After a 5-2 win in the opening game of this series, the Marlins have won four of five as their offense is heating up. They've scored 19 runs over their last three contests and face a starter in Erick Fedde today that was just blitzed by the Diamondbacks for six runs in just 3.1 innings of work.
Miami will counter with Pablo López, who has been simply superb so far in 2022. He's allowed just one run in three starts in 2022 and none in his last 12.1 innings. Washington has lost six straight and haven't scored more than three runs in any of those losses, so the odds are stacked against them in this one.
Can the Nationals get to the red-hot López to get back in the win column or will the Marlins keep rolling?
Let's check out the odds from WynnBET to help us find out ahead of this Marlins vs Nationals matchup:
Marlins vs Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Marlins: -1.5 (+130)
- Nationals: +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline:
- Marlins: -137
- Nationals: +127
Total:
- 7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction and Pick
The Marlins should be much, much bigger favorites here and I'm shocked at the disrespect they're receiving from oddsmakers.
On the one hand, you've got a Washington team that can't score any runs or stop their opponents from scoring any runs. All but one of their losses in this six-game losing streak have come by multiple runs, and Erick Fedde is coming off a disastrous performance against one of the worst offenses in the league in Arizona.
On the other hand, you've got a Miami team that's finding its footing and a starter in Pablo López that looks like one of the best pitchers in the sport right now.
Yet, somehow, the Marlins are only -137 favorites? What on earth? López has historically been worse on the road than at home, but he allowed only four runs in 16 innings over his final three road starts last season so that concern is overblown in my opinion.
López is marvelous at limiting walks and generating strikeouts, with an 82nd-percentile ranking in walk rate and an 85th-percentile ranking in chase rate. He should have no problem shutting down a weak Nationals' offense today, and the Marlins should create enough scoring opportunities to get the job done. I'm all over the Marlins and think we're getting incredible value.
Pick: Marlins (-137) for 2 Units
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.