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Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction and Odds for Monday, July 4 (Patrick Corbin Day is the True Holiday)

By Joe Summers

The Nationals are 4-13 in Patrick Corbin's last 17 starts as he's become one of MLB's worst starters
The Nationals are 4-13 in Patrick Corbin's last 17 starts as he's become one of MLB's worst starters / Mitchell Layton/GettyImages
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The Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins kick off the holiday festivities in D.C. with an early game at 11:05 AM EST this morning.

Patrick Corbin takes the bump for Washington after limiting the Pirates to one run over eight innings in his last start. He's shown steady improvement, allowing three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five outings, but still has a 4-10 record and a 6.06 ERA on the year.

Miami turns to former first round pick Braxton Garrett, who gave up five runs to the Cardinals last week but allowed only four runs combined in his three starts prior to that.

Can Garrett bounce back against a meager Washington lineup or will Corbin continue his climb to acceptable mediocrity in the nation's capital?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find the value in this Marlins vs Nationals matchup:

Marlins vs Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Marlins -1.5 (+135)
  • Nationals +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline:

  • Marlins: -115
  • Nationals: -105

Total:

  • 9.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction and Pick

Fading Patrick Corbin should be America's latest and greatest favorite pastime. The poor guy is terrible. His 5.98 expected ERA is among the worst in MLB, and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile shows just how bad he's been:

Dating back to last season, the Nationals are 4-13 in his last 17 starts with all but one of the losses coming by at least two runs.

I'm optimistic about Braxton Garrett's future in the Marlins rotation too. His 3.39 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) indicates his 5.24 ERA is the result of poor luck, and he's showcased strong command with an ability to make batters miss.

The Nationals have the league's worst OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last two weeks and have been dreadful at home all season. Miami has dominated this series of late and I see today being no different.

It may be Washington's holiday, but the Marlins will be celebrating with a resounding victory to close out this series.

Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+135)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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