Marlins vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Saturday, May 7 (Regression Coming for Pablo Lopez)

The San Diego Padres host the Miami Marlins Saturday night after taking the first two games of this four-game series. Those first two were of the low-scoring variety with just eight combined runs between them. 

The Padres improved to 18-9 on the year and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. In contrast, the Marlins have lost six games in a row and are in danger of getting swept for the second time this week. It’s a surprising drop off after the Marlins won seven in a row to end April. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

• Marlins: +1.5 (-220)
• Padres: -1.5 (+180)

Moneyline:

• Marlins: +103
• Padres: -113

Total:

• Total 6.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Marlins vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

A quick glance at the odds and recent results for these teams suggests the Padres are a lock to win as short home favorites. But not so fast.

The reason the odds are close at all is Miami’s starter tonight, Pablo Lopez. Lopez enters this game with a 1.29 ERA and microscopic 0.89 WHIP in his first 23 ⅓ innings pitched. He gave up just one run in his first four starts before getting touched a little on Monday against the Diamondbacks.

While Arizona’s batting average is awful, they rely on power and managed to score three times against the Marlins in a 5-4 loss. A regression period will come as Lopez has a career ERA of 3.82, but just how much he will slip is up for debate. His numbers have improved across the board every year since 2018 and this could be a breakout season for the 26-year-old. 

Lopez faces off against LHP Sean Manaea this evening. Manaea got off to a hot start to the year but things have gone south a bit in the last two weeks. He got rocked by the Dodgers for six runs in 4 ⅓ innings, followed by giving up three runs against a weak Pirates team. His ERA went from 1.42 to 3.60 in that span. 

It’s hard to pass up getting Lopez at underdog odds, but Manaea has built up more trust from me in the last few years. He puts the Padres in a good spot to keep their win streak going. 

Pick: Padres -113 ML

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE