Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, June 15 (Pablo Lopez Gives Miami Strong Underdog Value)

Two hot NL East teams do battle this afternoon when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park for Game 3 of this series.

The Phillies bounced back after a brutal 13-1 loss to the Diamondbacks and beat the Marlins 3-2 in Game 1 of this series on Monday. With that win, the Phillies moved to 10-1 in their previous 11 games. Miami, meanwhile, went 7-3 in the 10 games leading up to this series. Both teams need to stay hot if they have any hope of catching the Mets for the division lead. 

Here are the odds for this game from consensus sportsbooks. 

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

• Marlins: +1.5 (-170)
• Phillies: -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline:

• Marlins: +115
• Phillies: -135

Total:

• Total 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

On most days I would be siding with the Phillies here. The way their offense has been producing it’s hard for most pitchers to keep them quiet for more than a few innings. But, Pablo Lopez is not like most pitchers.

The Marlins' right hander has been getting better every year of his career and boasts a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 70 ⅓ innings. I will admit that he’s been a bit shaky so far in June with a 4.76 ERA in 11 ⅓ innings. But, he still has my trust after a strong track record in his first 10 games of the season. In 63 career at-bats, Lopez has held the Phillies to a .192 batting average with 10 strikeouts and four walks. 

Lopez will go head to head against Kyle Gibson in what I don’t expect to be much of a pitcher’s duel. Gibson enters this series finale with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 63 ⅓ innings. Not terrible numbers at first glance. But dig deeper and the issues with Gibson emerge.

While he was fantastic in April with a 2.93 ERA, Gibson lost his mojo in May with a 4.78. Now, two starts deep into June, and his ERA is up to 7.71. He’s given up at least two runs in five straight starts and more than three in his last two. Gibson is also struggling against the current Marlins roster with a batting average of .321 and an OPS of 1.223. In 77 at-bats, Gibson allowed 20 hits, six of which left the ballpark.

Philly’s bats might pull them out of whatever hold Gibson digs them, but I’m willing to bet Lopez does enough to eke out an underdog win. 

Pick: Marlins +115 ML

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE