Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, August 9 (Braxton Garrett is Entering Elite Territory)

The under hit in each of the last six Miami Marlins games with none of the contests exceeding four runs. There's reason to believe that streak continues today with Braxton Garrett taking on Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies.

I'm impressed with Garrett, a 25-year-old left-handed rookie, whose 3.05 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) would rank 12th among all qualified pitchers. The guy right in front of him? Oh, just AL Cy Young-favorite Justin Verlander.

Garrett has 37 strikeouts over his last 22.2 innings, showcasing an elite slider that has a whiff rate of 43.3% and an opponent's expected batting average of just .177.

Miami needs Garrett's best stuff, because Wheeler is downright dominant at home. Through 10 outings at Citizens Bank Park, Wheeler has a 1.58 ERA and his 2.85 FIP ranks seventh in MLB.

Which stellar pitcher has the edge? Can Garrett pull off a miracle upset?

Let's check out consensus odds to find out ahead of this Marlins vs Phillies matchup:

Marlins vs Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Marlins +1.5 (-108)
• Phillies -1.5 (-111)

Moneyline:

• Marlins: +199
• Phillies: -243

Total:

• 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction and Pick

There's been a ton of young pitchers I've fallen in love with this season (hello, Spencer Strider), but Braxton Garrett is right up there with the best of them.

As he's increased his slider usage, Garrett turned into a strikeout machine. His 39.8% strikeout rate over his last four starts would easily lead MLB, and he gets an excellent test against a Phillies lineup that ranks seventh in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks.

It's possible we're seeing Garrett blossom into an elite starter before our eyes, and I'll keep backing him as he continues to show dramatic improvement.

But the Marlins' offense is terrible, and Zack Wheeler is already an elite starter. He's thrown eight consecutive quality starts at home and just held the vaunted Braves to one run over seven innings in Atlanta.

This feels like it could be a statement game for Garrett though, and with the Phillies' deficient bullpen I'm happy to take a shot on +199 odds. That being said, my favorite play in this game is the under.

In Garrett's 11 starts, the under is 9-2. With the poor output the Marlins offense is putting out, I don't see this game going over. Look for Miami to pull out a close victory in the neighborhood of 2-1.

Pick: Marlins (+199) and Under 7.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.