Marlins vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Thursday, July 28 (Cincy Has Several Advantages)

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins look to salvage a split in their four-game set with the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday afternoon in the Queen City.

Cincy grabbed a win with Luis Castillo on the mound Wednesday, and now they send promising young righty Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.70 ERA) against Daniel Castano (1-3, 3.86 ERA). 

This will be Castano's seventh start of the year since he moved back into the rotation on June 15. Ashcraft was banged up his last seven outings, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) suggests he may have been a bit unlucky in those games. 

Here are the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook for Thursday’s matchup: 

Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Marlins +1.5 (-184)
  • Reds -1.5 (+152)


  • Marlins: +112
  • Reds: -132


  • 9.5 (Over +100/Under -122)

Marlins vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Based on Ashcraft’s last seven starts, he looks like a prime candidate to fade, pitching to the tune of a 7.07 ERA (4.52 FIP) and allowing opponents to hit .338 against him. Yet somehow, the Reds are 4-3 in those games. 

After a few solid starts in June, Castano was knocked around in his last two outings, allowing nine runs (eight earned) over nine innings of work. The Marlins lost both of those starts and are 3-3 in his six starts this season. 

I never thought I’d say the Reds are the better team coming into any matchup, but with the Marlins struggling offensively and losing seven of their last 10, that appears to be the case in this matchup. 

Over the last 15 days, the Reds are 21st in OPS to the Marlins’ 29th, and they are ninth in runs scored while the Marlins are once again in 29th. 

Ashcraft hasn’t been great lately, but he showed some promise earlier this season. I’ll trust him to get on track against a struggling offense. 

Lean: Reds ML (-132)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.