Marlins vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, July 27 (Excellent Pitching Matchup Gives Two Bets Value)

Luis Castillo gets his final opportunity today to show contenders why they should trade for him ahead of next week's deadline. Perhaps the best starting pitcher on the market, Castillo has a 1.00 ERA over his last four starts and couldn't ask for a better matchup than tonight's contest with Miami.

The Marlins rank 27th in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month but send promising rookie Braxton Garrett to the mound. He's got a 1.80 ERA over four July outings, throwing at least six innings in three of them.

After these clubs split the first two games of the series, where does the value lie in tonight's tiebreaker? Let's find out by first checking out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Marlins vs Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Marlins +1.5 (-165)
• Reds -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline:

• Marlins: +130
• Reds: -140

Total:

• 8.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Marlins vs Reds Prediction and Pick

This will likely be Castillo's final start in a Reds uniform, as he's been among the best starters in the National League and would be a valuable addition for any contending team.

Who couldn't use an excellent, experienced pitcher with a 2.09 ERA on the road, after all? Cincy has four straight wins behind Castillo as he's given up just three runs total over that stretch, though he did walk four batters in his last outing.

We're picking at hairs with that complaint though, and I don't think Miami is going to score much today. But I don't think the Reds will either, as I'm extremely impressed with Braxton Garrett and the season he's putting together.

The dude looks dominant. Over his last two starts, Garrett threw 12 innings, allowing four hits, one run and three walks while striking out 18 batters. Cincy ranks only 24th in OPS against lefties in July, giving Garrett a prime opportunity to continue his hot streak.

I think he will. I'll be making two wagers here. First, I like the value on the Marlins to spoil Castillo's likely final start in red. Garrett has just been too good to catch +130 odds here, and the Reds are just 4-7 in their last 11 as home favorites.

The under also has my eye, though. Both pitchers are great, and we should see a tight, low-scoring affair. In Garrett's last nine starts, the under is 7-2. It's also 9-3 over Castillo's last dozen, so both pitchers have a history of keeping the score low.

Give me the Marlins to prevail somewhere in the neighborhood of 4-2 as Garrett and Castillo both dazzle.

Pick: Marlins (+130) and Under 8.0 (-105)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.