Marquette vs. Purdue Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, November 15 (Expect More Defense Than Total Suggests)

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) looks for an open teammate during their early season matchup at Mackey Arena.
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) looks for an open teammate during their early season matchup at Mackey Arena. / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA

The Marquette Golden Eagles are averaging a robust 88 points per game in their first two matchups of the season, but face a much more difficult opponent in their first road game of the year in the Gavitt Tipoff Games against the Purdue Boilermakers.

Both teams are 2-0 to start the year, each coming off blowout victories by 19-plus points.

Marquette can't miss a shot in the early going, shooting 49.6% from the floor, and play fast. The Golden Eagles own the 11th-fastest adjusted tempo via KenPom, and the No. 1 average possession length. That's not the case for Purdue, who rank in the top 15 in offense, but will try to force Marquette to slow things down at Mackey Arena with the 307th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country.

Here's the latest odds for tonight's Big East vs. Big Ten showdown in West Lafayette.

Marquette vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Marquette vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

I'm not quite sure why the total remains this high on the board for these two teams.

Is Marquette at the level head coach Shaka Smart needs them to be defensively? Not yet, but they still rank 73rd in the country in KenPom adjusted efficiency on defense, and will pressure the Boilermakers consistently until Matt Painter forces them to adjust. We've already adjusted how fast they play, but up-tempo doesn't always translate to a ton of points if the defense can contain.

Meanwhile, the Boilermakers in the early going of the season have become a very solid defensive unit, ranked 40th in adjusted defense while limiting opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 36.7%; 14th-best in the country. They also have been terrific in opponent 3-point field goal %, but that's not where Marquette thrives. The Golden Eagles have shot 64.7% from inside the line, while Purdue has held opponents to 44.3%.

Purdue has allowed just 53 and 44 points in their first two games of the year, but have only scored 84 and 63 points respectively. Their offense remains remarkably efficient at a top 15 clip, but they also play super slow, as evidenced earlier with their bottom 60 tempo.

Maybe the Boilers pass through the havoc defense with ease, but Marquette still needs to score, and even with the fast-paced nature of the Eagles, I don't see both teams adding up to get to 152 tonight.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.