Marquette vs. UConn Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Big East Tournament Championship
Marquette squares off with UConn on Saturday at Madison Square Garden for the Big East championship, the third time these two teams will face each other on the hardwood this season. This comes on the heels of an intense 74-67 matchup in Milwaukee last week, which the Huskies outlasted the Golden Eagles to win by a narrow margin.
This is becoming a conference rivalry between the best of the Big East, so how will this contest shape up? The Huskies are continuing to solidify their resume for a potential No. 1 overall seed and Final Four run, while the Golden Eagles are seeking to do the same as a projected No. 2 seed according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. What’s the best play for this heavyweight championship game?
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Marquette vs. UConn odds, spread, and total
Marquette vs. UConn Betting Trends
- UConn is 21-12 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Marquette is 11-3-1 ATS this season in game matchups with equal rest
- Marquette has gone UNDER in 19 of 33 games this season
- UConn is 5-1 ATS at neutral sites this season
Marquette vs. UConn How To Watch
- Date: Saturday, March 16th
- Game Time: 6:30 PM EST
- Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- How To Watch (TV, Streaming): FOX, FOX Sports App
- Marquette Record: 25-8
- UConn Record: 30-3
Marquette vs. UConn Key Players To Watch
Marquette
Kam Jones: With Kolek absent from this roster for the last five games, head coach Shaka Smart’s guys have stepped up with much of that weight shifted to Jones who's answered the call. In that span, he’s averaging 22.4 PPG, well north of his season average (16.9). He was almost the hero in regulation against Villanova on Thursday, but just narrowly missed beating the buzzer. In Friday’s effort, 10 of his 23 points occurred in the second half to help lift Marquette over a resilient Providence team. Smart has called on him time and time again and he’s delivered when it matters most.
UConn
Alex Karaban: Against Marquette on March 6th, it was an emphatic performance from Karaban in his most important outing of the season, scoring 23 points with five rebounds. On such a talented team, he is generally a 3rd option for the Huskies' offense behind Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton, which shows the absurd depth at head coach Dan Hurley’s disposal. In March, Karaban is averaging 15.6 PPG and shooting above 50% from the field in three of those five contests. When he thrives in this complementary role, the Huskies are difficult to take down.
Marquette vs. UConn Prediction and Pick
The Huskies haven’t lost many games, and they have fared well against the Golden Eagles this season. In Hartford, they slammed the door shut after an opening first-half duel, ultimately winning by a stunning 28-point margin. On the road in Milwaukee, Marquette fought tooth and nail, but narrowly lost by seven points. They sorely missed their star player Tyler Kolek in that matchup, who averages 15.0 PPG, 4.7 REB, and 7.6 AST. They will unfortunately be without his duties tonight as he continues to recover from an oblique injury suffered on February 28. He has not yet been medically cleared to play.
This is a high-caliber matchup as both teams rank top 10 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Bart Torvik, Connecticut in 2nd, Marquette 9th. Both teams can create prime shot opportunities and score in quick bursts, perhaps their best weapons. For the Huskies, Spencer has been flourishing from three-point range, Newton is both a scorer and facilitator, while forward Donovan Clingan can play bully ball in the paint and finish layups inside. The Golden Eagles will have the ability to match those weapons with their own. Jones has adapted to his leadership role with efficient shooting, with his wingmen Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell both receiving expanded playing time with Kolek out. Oso Ighodaro is not as strong-willed as Clingan offensively but can match his physicality on the defensive end which will be a key matchup deciding in this game.
There is one critical statistic that will need to hold true for the Golden Eagles to win this game and that’s forcing turnovers. Marquette ranks highly in that category, sixth in turnover margin with an impressive +4.9 according to NCAA.com. While this statistic is about forcing opponent turnovers, it additionally reflects on being able to limit opponent possessions and this tempo can help Marquette in-game. By finding the right shots offensively while forcing UConn into difficult shot selections, this is an area that can swing this contest in the Golden Eagles' favor.
What makes the Huskies incredibly lethal is their seemingly effortless ball distribution. They rank among the best in the nation in team assists per game (6th, 18.3 APG) according to NCAA.com, and can utilize multiple different scoring avenues to wear a team down. They have size and depth unlike any other and it can become a coach’s nightmare to play against them. What makes this all the more frightening is that UConn are the defending national champions, and yet they’re even more threatening than last season.
Connecticut has the overall edge to take this Big East championship, a feat they haven’t accomplished since 2011. What I don’t envision is this becoming a one-sided affair. Marquette has proved they can still hang with the best, even with this game being at the Huskies' unofficial second home base, AKA “Storrs South.” UConn had to gut it out during parts of their battle with St. John’s on Friday, and this is now a championship environment. The Huskies can go full throttle on their opponents, but I expect this to be a scintillating game between two Final Four contenders. I’ll take the points with the Golden Eagles in what feels like an inflated line due to Kolek’s absence.
Pick: Marquette +9.5
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.