Marshall vs. FIU Prediction and Odds for Conference USA First Round (Back Panthers To Cover Short Number)

A showdown of struggling squads kicks off the Conference USA Tournament as the 11-20 #7 seed Marshall Thundering Herd take on the 15-16 #6 Florida International Panthers in the first round at 7:30 PM EST tonight.

The Panthers have lost four straight but do have a pair of upset wins over Marshall, who has lost three straight themselves.

Can the Thundering Herd exact revenge to keep their season alive or will Florida International make it three in a row?

Let's check out the odds via WynnBET to find value in this Conference USA first round matchup:

Marshall vs FIU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Marshall -3.5 (-110)
• Florida International +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Marshall: -170
• Florida International: +140

Total:

• 147 (Over -110/Under -110)

Marshall vs FIU Prediction and Pick

There are certain teams that just shouldn't be trusted as favorites against anyone. Somehow, someway, they'll squander the good will oddsmakers have bestowed upon them. Marshall is one of those teams.

The Thundering Herd have covered the spread in two of their last three, but prior to that had failed to cover in six straight. They're in just the 30th percentile in offensive rating and 6th in defensive rating over their last five games and struggle in a few key categories that are crucial in winning tournament matchups.

First, they're allergic to free throws. I recently learned you can be in the 0 percentile in a stat (I thought the scale only went as low as 1) and Marshall is in the 0 percentile in free throw attempts. In a tight, tournament atmosphere, you need to be able to get to the charity stripe to steady your team if you're not hitting shots. And the Thundering Herd, with the 325th-ranked three-point shooting percentage on the season, do not hit shots.

I'll admit, they have been hitting them recently, with a 94th-percentile ranking in three-point shooting percentage in their last five games. But I think they're due for regression, as their season-long numbers do not bear out a good shooting team. When a team is getting lucky and hitting contested shots that they don't normally make, we have an opportunity as bettors to fade them. That's exactly what I'm going to do here.

FIU took advantage of a combined 29 turnovers from Marshall to win the first two matchups and I expect them to keep it close tonight.

Pick: FIU +3.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.