Betsided

Matt Harvey Day is Becoming a Weekly Holiday for Bettors

By Iain MacMillan

Matt Harvey enters tonight's start against the Houston Astros with a 7.54 ERA.
Matt Harvey enters tonight's start against the Houston Astros with a 7.54 ERA. / Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
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Bring out the champagne and confetti because it’s Matt Harvey day!

In what’s quickly becoming my favorite day of the week, Harvey is once again getting a start as a pitcher in a Major League Baseball game. As I’ve said in the past, I don’t fully understand how he continues to get starts in MLB, but I’ll keep winning money by betting against him.

Harvey enters today’s game with a 3-9 record, a 7.54 ERA, and a 1.735 WHIP. To make matters worse for the 32-year old, tonight he’s facing the best offense in baseball in the Houston Astros.

WynnBET has the Astros set as massive -348 favorites, and the Orioles are set as +275 underdogs. The runline, which is set at -1.5 for 99% of MLB games, has been adjusted to -2.5 in Houston’s favor for tonight’s game. The total is set at 9.5 runs.

My personal favorite wager that I’ve been betting on in Harvey starts is to take the over on his opponents team total. The Astros team total for tonight is set at six runs, with the over set at enticing -105 odds. That’s the way I’ll be going again today as I continue to ride this “fade Matt Harvey” train.

Harvey has given up at least five earned runs in six of his last nine starts, and he’s allowed fewer than three runs only once during that stretch. He hasn’t been credited with a win since May 1st against the Oakland Athletics.

He has yet to face the Astros this season, and he’s going to be in for a long night.

Houston leads MLB in runs per game at 5.65, which is 0.51 runs more per game than the next best team which is the Toronto Blue Jays at 5.14. The Astros also lead the Majors in batting average (.277) and OPS (.802).

They’ve been especially good this month, as their batting average and OPS in June is .298 and .882 respectively.

If Harvey does manage to survive his start, the Orioles will have to turn to their bullpen which ranks 26th in the Majors in ERA at 4.89.

It’s best not to overthink this bet, take the over on the Astros team total of six and let’s sit down and watch the train wreck that is a Matt Harvey start.

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