Matt Ryan vs. Ryan Tannehill vs. Trevor Lawrence: Which AFC South QB Will Have More Passing Yards, Touchdowns?

Who cares what time of year it is.  We always want to talk football.  So, let’s take a look at maybe the most wide open and intriguing division in the NFL, the AFC South.  More specifically the quarterbacks in that division, because they are ultimately who will decide it. My apologies to Davis Mills, who I think was actually not bad last year for Houston, but he is excluded from this conversation.  

We’re going to figure out what quarterback will lead the division in passing yards and touchdowns and give you the betting perspective. For this, we used consensus odds for passing leaders and touchdown leaders.

Is the change of scenery exactly what Matt Ryan needed to reach his MVP form again, can Ryan Tannehill survive without AJ Brown, or will Trevor Lawrence take the next step and live up to his pre-draft hype?

Matt Ryan Passing Yards, Touchdown Odds for 2022

• Most Passing Yards +2500
• Most Passing Touchdowns +2000

Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards, Touchdown Odds for 2022

• Most Passing Yards +4000
• Most Passing Touchdowns +3500

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards, Touchdown Odds for 2022

• Most Passing Yards +3000
• Most Passing Touchdowns +3000

Who Will Finish With More Passing Yards: Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill or Trevor Lawrence?

Last season was Matt Ryan’s first since 2010 with fewer than 4,000 passing yards. He finished with 3,968.  You could potentially cite a declining skill set as the reason for this regression, but I’d direct you to a depleted roster.  Ryan only had Calvin Ridley for five games all season, Julio Jones got sent to Tennessee, and Kyle Pitts didn’t start to come on until week 5.  Outside of Pitts, Russell Gage or Cordarelle Patterson were his best options.  Ryan was still accurate, ranking in the top ten in “on target” throws and had the 29th most “poor throws” according to ProFootball Reference. 

The offensive line in Indianapolis is one of the best in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor will give Ryan a great rushing attack, but Michael Pittman is their number one receiver. Not enough to move the needle for me. This is a run-first team and Matt Ryan will excel as a quarterback, they should make the playoffs, but it will not be one of his strongest statistical seasons.  

I said run-first team and got scared Mike Vrabel was going to burst through my wall like the Kool-Aid Man.  The Titans ran on first down the 7th most of any team in the NFL last season and that number was skewed a bit by the end of the year when they were missing Derrick Henry to injury. 

Last season, following Arthur Smith’s departure for Atlanta, Tannehill had his worst year as a Titan, with his lowest yard per game, highest interception percentage, lowest passer rating, and less touchdowns than he threw in just ten games in 2019.  Somehow, the Titans were the number one seed in the AFC going 12-5.  Yet, lost in the playoffs to Cincinnati when Tannehill threw three picks.  Oh not to mention, AJ Brown, his best receiver by far got traded away to Philadelphia for them to draft Treyon Burks, who is best described as AJ Brown lite.  Vrabel will trust Tannehill less than ever in 2022.  

Is it even worth evaluating Trevor Lawrence’s rookie year?  Urban Meyer probably spent more time talking ball(s) with the lady who was grinding on him in his bar in Ohio than with his number one overall pick.  Jacksonville was a disaster last season, and Trevor Lawrence was the biggest victim of that.  Yet, he nearly had as many passing yards as Tannehill did, 3,641 to 3,734. Yes, he had only 12 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, but he got help in the offseason.  

The Trevor Lawrence hype train is rolling and I’ve got a first class seat.  We don’t need to litigate the value proposition of paying Christian Kirk 20 million a year, all we need to do is acknowledge that he is better than what was in Jacksonville last year.  That will help Lawrence no matter the dollar figure.  So will Evan Engram, Brandon Scherff, and Zay Jones. 

There is really no statistical case that I can comfortably make to prove that Trevor Lawrence will throw for the most yards in the AFC.  It’s frankly all contextual and all eye test.  I’ve watched Trevor Lawrence enough to know that he is good at football (there’s a hot take).  I also know that the Jaguars are not going to be particularly good at football.  They will continue to be down and force Lawrence to throw more than anyone in the division and I think he’s up to the task.  Trevor Lawrence is going to have a breakout year.  

Pick: Trevor Lawrence

Who Will Finish With More Passing Touchdowns: Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill or Trevor Lawrence?

This question is not all that different from the one that preceded it.  Except the context changes.  I picked Lawrence, in part, because I think the Jags are the worst of the three teams.  Therefore he will have to throw the most.  I’m picking Matt Ryan here, in part, because I think the Colts are the best team in the division. 

Carson Wentz threw for 27 touchdowns in that offense a year ago.  Matt Ryan is a massive upgrade from Wentz and can easily eclipse that number, which was still six more touchdowns than Tannehill threw for last season.  

Pick: Matt Ryan

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