Matthew Stafford vs. Tom Brady: Who Will Throw for More Passing Yards?

Sunday afternoon’s Divisional Round game between the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be the QB battle to watch this weekend. What is there to say about Tom Brady that hasn’t already been said. He’s the GOAT and at 44 years old is leading the MVP race. Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, had rediscovered himself in LA and has been on a tear in recent weeks. While the Bucs have the star power and are the reigning champions, the Rams are a very dangerous team right now and they have Stafford to thank for a lot of their recent success. 

Let’s take a closer look at these two superstars and pick who we think is worthy of a prop play Sunday night. All odds listed were provided by WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Total 280.5 (OVER -115/UNDER -115)

First off, props to Staford for winning his first career playoff game. It was a long time coming and would never have happened if he stayed languishing in Detroit. Now, at the ripe age of 33, he has his first chance to make a playoff run and I don’t expect him to let it slip through his fingers. Stafford had little need to put in much work last weekend as the Rams simply dismantled the Arizona Cardinals 34-11. Stafford went 13-for-17 with 202 yards and two touchdowns. He did not record an interception but was sacked once. He also ran for his first TD of the season and first in the last five years. 

While this is all well and good, I can’t help but think that his total for this game is a bit steep. Sure, he went off for 343 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 3, but he has cooled off a bit since his torrid start to the season. He has gone over this total just once in his last six games and he played some poor defenses during that stretch. If this were closer to 250 I would take a shot but I don’t feel comfortable where the line currently stands. 

Tom Brady Passing Yards Total 289.5 (OVER -115/UNDER -115)

While a lot is said about how good the Rams defense is, I feel the need to clarify why that is really quick. It is because they have a very good defense against the rush, do a great job in the red zone, and do a phenomenal job of getting to the quarterback. What they don’t do particularly well is defend against the pass. Despite ranking in the top 10 in points allowed, they are 21st in passing yards surrendered per contest. Opponents also pass on them more than almost any other team in the league. 

While this sounds like a win for Brady, as usual, things are not that simple. First of all, two of Brady’s favorite targets, Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin, won’t be suiting up anytime soon. Breshaud Perriman has also been ruled out of this game and Cyril Grayson is questionable as of Friday afternoon. On top of that, Leonard Fournette’s status is unknown. He has until 4 p.m. ET tomorrow to be activated from IR. He has not played since Wee 15 but will be thrust back into the feature back role with few other options. Ronald Jones has been ruled out and that leaves Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Giovanni Bernand, and Le’Veon Bell. Brady might also be without two of his most important offensive linemen in Ryan Jenson and Tristan Wirfs. Both are questionable as of this writing. Because of all this, I find it hard to trust even Brady to go off in this game. In fact, I think he struggles to find targets while seeing heavy pressure from the Rams defense. 

I have to add that I like where Brady’s rushing yard prop is for this game. It currently sits at 1.5 and is one QB sneak away from cashing.