Mavericks vs. Bucks Prediction and Odds (Back the Under Sunday Afternoon in Milwaukee)
By Ben Heisler
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez all rested up on Friday as the L.A. Clippers dropped 153 points on the defending champions in a 153-119 loss in their home arena.
On Sunday, the Dallas Mavericks won't be so lucky.
Both squads are expected to have all of their stars when the Mavericks and Bucks match up in a Sunday afternoon marquee matchup on ABC at 1 p.m. ET. Milwaukee remains just a game and a half out of first to the Miami Heat in the East, and Dallas finds themselves just a game back of the Golden State Warriors for the No. 3 spot in the West.
Each team comes off a loss, with the Mavericks getting uncharacteristically blown out 135-103 in D.C. following their third game in four nights.
Here are the latest odds for today's matinee over at WynnBET Sportsbook:
Mavericks vs. Bucks Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Mavericks +5
- Bucks -5
Moneyline:
- Mavericks +175
- Bucks -215
Total:
- 227.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
Mavericks vs. Bucks Prediction and Pick
We might have thought the NBA MVP race was over a week or so ago, but The Greek Freak is making a hard charge back into the conversation with Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic.
BetSided's Reed Wallach pointed out on Friday that Giannis has soared up to +550 behind Jokic (-215) and Embiid (+175) thanks to some remarkable late season performances against the best players in the league.
Giannis showing up...
— Micah Adams (@MicahAdams13) April 1, 2022
Last games against...
vs. Durant: 44-14-6 in a W
vs. Embiid: 40-14-6 in a W
vs. LeBron: 44-14-8 in a W
Meanwhile, Doncic and the Mavericks' offense has gone to another level since March. Via StatMuse, their offensive rating is 115.7, which would be first in the NBA at an overall level.
So why go under?
Each team comes off atrocious defensive performances, and both coaches addressed their need to get back to defensive intensity ahead of this particular matchup. While it hasn't shown up lately, these are still two teams that rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency as well.
There's also Dallas' need to hit shots from the outside, which is essential to any team's success against Milwaukee. With the Bucks set to get the bulk of their starters back today, that makes things far more difficult.
Will Mavs make enough 3ptrs today vs MIL team that 3x in 4 yrs has allowed most 3ptrs in @NBA? And how do Mavs fix their defense vs Giannis (BTB 40-10-6 games), & a deep MIL team that has a legit Big 3, and 3 bench guys (Allen, Portis Pat C) who all avg 10? Fascinating theater.
— Chuck Cooperstein (@coopmavs) April 3, 2022
Plus, don't forget about the longtime trend of afternoon games going under. Via NBA Stuffer, there's a noticeable uptick from afternoon games to night games when it comes to both pace and offensive efficiency.
Via @nbastuffer, the trend in offensive production between afternoon games / night games ?
— Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) April 3, 2022
Noticeable uptick in both pace and offensive efficiency when games are at night, relative to afternoon.
Mavericks vs Bucks: TOTAL 227.5 (1 pm)
WIzards vs. Celtics: TOTAL 221.5 (1 pm) pic.twitter.com/VtmlM6qzFa
LEAN: UNDER 227.5 (-110)
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