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Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 1 (Take Dallas)

NBA betting preview and pick for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics. 

By Shelby Dermer

May 30, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) and guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrate with teammates after winning the Western Conference Championship against the Minnesota Timberwolves in game five of the western conference finals for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
May 30, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) and guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrate with teammates after winning the Western Conference Championship against the Minnesota Timberwolves in game five of the western conference finals for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports / Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
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The wait is almost over. 

The NBA Finals tips off Thursday night at TD Garden when the Dallas Mavericks visit the Boston Celtics. 

With one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA, the Celtics are a 6.5-point favorite in Game 1. Boston, the favorite to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the majority of the season, is a -210 favorite (67.74% implied probability) to take the series.

Dallas has been stellar on the road, though. Can the Mavericks hang around in Game 1? Here’s the betting preview for Thursday’s series opener with a pick. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mavericks vs. Celtics Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Mavericks: +6.5 (-110)
  • Celtics: -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Mavericks: +190
  • Celtics: -230

Total: 214.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mavericks vs. Celtics How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, June 6 
  • Game time: 8:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: TD Garden
  • How to Watch (TV): ABC

Mavericks vs. Celtics Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks

  • Injury report not yet submitted

Boston Celtics

  • Injury report not yet submitted

Mavericks vs. Celtics Key Players to Watch

Dallas Mavericks

  • Dereck Lively II: While Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in his return to Boston will steal plenty of headline space heading into this series, Lively has been one of the vital role players teams need to make a deep postseason run. In the Western Conference Finals, Lively didn’t miss a shot (16-for-16) and averaged 9.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game off the bench. The Mavericks have found their groove down low with a center tandem of Lively and Daniel Gafford. Dallas lost Game 4 against Minnesota, too, the only contest Lively missed in the series.

Boston Celtics 

  • Kristaps Porzingis: The veteran center could be the X-factor for the heavily-favored Celtics in the NBA Finals. Porzingis is expected to play in Game 1 on Thursday after suffering a calf injury in the first round against the Miami Heat. He averaged 12.3 points and 5 rebounds per game while shooting just 38.9% from the field in that first-round series win over Miami. Porzingis had 24 points on 8-of-14 shooting, including four 3-pointers, in his only appearance against Dallas this season - a 138-110 Celtics’ victory at TD Garden March 1.

Mavericks vs. Celtics Prediction and Pick 

As Betsided’s Peter Dewey pointed out, there are plenty of cases to be made on each side of this matchup for Game 1. The favorite in Game 1 of the NBA Finals is 16-3 ATS since 2005 and the Celtics are used to laying points at TD Garden.

Boston is 26-21-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and have blown out teams in the playoffs. Margin of victory is one of the major talking points in this series as Boston wasn’t the most battle-tested team in its path through the Eastern Conference Playoffs, winning just three games by single digits.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks won by single digits seven times in the playoffs and were able to prevail in a very competitive five-game Western Conference Finals series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, pulling out the first two games on the road by a combined four points.

Right now, the way the tandem of Doncic and Irving are playing is just too much for a bet on the Celtics. The Mavericks are an NBA-best 34-16 ATS on the road this season and have gone 7-2 straight up on the road in the postseason.

Boston has the No. 1 offense in efficiency in the NBA this season but the Mavericks’ defense has been a quiet storyline to follow through the final stretch of the regular season and in the playoffs. Dallas ranks fourth in the postseason in opposing field goal percentage (44.5%) while giving up just 103.9 points per game.

The series could come down to the perimeter with Boston’s prowess from beyond the arc. The Celtics shoot the most 3-pointers per game (42.1) and Dallas ranks No. 17 in the league against triples this season. When the Celtics are on from downtown, they are a freight train that is hard to stop. However, the Dallas defense has held its playoff opponents to just 35.6% from beyond the arc and the Mavericks’ ATS mark on the road makes them the pick for Game 1.

Pick: Mavericks +6.5 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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