Mavericks vs. Clippers NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 5 (How to Bet Total)

The only undecided series in the Western Conference is between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers, and we’ll need at least two more games to get there with the series knotted at two games apiece heading into a crucial Game 5 on Wednesday night. 

The Clippers re-gained home-court advantage in Game 4 by staving off a furious Dallas comeback to even the series, and they are now 2-0 when Kawhi Leonard doesn’t play in the series. 

That’s a major note, because the star forward has already been ruled out for Game 5 with a knee injury. 

Dallas comes into this game as a slight favorite with Kawhi out, and that’s a great sign based on this season’s results for the Mavs. In 24 games as a road favorite, Dallas went 19-5 against the spread and 20-4 straight up, but it did lose Game 1 of this series in that spot. 

Let’s break down the latest odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Game 5: 

Mavericks vs. Clippers Odds, Spread and Total

Mavericks vs. Clippers How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 1
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena
• How to watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Tied 2-2

Mavericks vs. Clippers Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

• Luka Doncic – probable
• Tim Hardaway Jr. – out
• Olivier Maxence-Prosper – out

Clippers Injury Report

• Kawhi Leonard – out

Mavericks vs. Clippers Key Players to Watch

Dallas Mavericks

Kyrie Irving: Irving had a monster Game 4, scoring 40 points on 14-of-25 shooting, but it wasn’t enough for the Mavs to pull off a win after trailing big in the first half. Still, Kyrie’s play throughout the series has been terrific. He enters tonight’s Game 5 averaging 28.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. 

Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden: The Clippers acquired James Harden as a third star in case Leonard or Paul George got hurt, and Harden has made that investment every worthwhile. He’s scored 28 and 33 points in the two games that Leonard has sat in this series while also averaging 7.0 assists per game. He should remain in a lead role as long as Kawhi is out. 

Mavericks vs. Clippers Prediction and Pick

This series hasn’t made a ton of sense, as the Clippers are 2-0 without their best players (Leonard) on the floor, and the Mavericks struggled mightily in the first half at home in Game 4 and in the first half on the road in Game 1. 

Yet, Dallas stormed back in Game 4 to nearly win, pushing the game over the total for the first time in the series. 

I’m not buying that as the new norm. 

Instead, I’m looking to the UNDER on Wednesday night after the first three games of this series finished with 206, 189 and 191 combined points. 

These teams are playing at the third-slowest pace of any series this postseason, and we can’t forget how great the Dallas defense was down the stretch of the regular season, ranking No. 1 in defensive rating over its final 15 games. 

With Leonard out, the Clippers have relied pretty heavily still on isolation from James Harden and Paul George, and I think they know they need to grind the game to halt to avoid a Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving explosion. 

I expect this series to turn back to the defensive ways of Games 1-3 on Wednesday night. 

Pick: UNDER 207.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.