We've got a potential playoff preview between two hot teams when the 35-24 Dallas Mavericks take on the 36-22 Utah Jazz tonight at 8:00 PM CST.
The Mavericks have won and covered the spread in six of their last seven since committing the team fully to Luka Doncic by trading Kristaps Porzingis, while Utah has also won six of seven as they're starting to get healthy with Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert back in the fold.
Does the value lie with the Mavericks to cover a modest number on the road or will Utah assert itself among the class of the Western Conference?
Here are the odds via WynnBET:
Mavericks vs. Jazz Odds, Spread and Total
- Dallas: -6 (-110)
- Utah: +6 (-110)
- Dallas: +200
- Utah: -250
- 216.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Mavericks vs. Jazz Prediction and Pick
The Jazz have battled injuries all season but are finally starting to resemble the team they envisioned coming into the year. They still have the best offensive rating in the NBA this season to pair with a top-10 defense, but they'll be put to the test against a Mavericks team that also has a top-10 offense and defense since the Porzingis trade.
There's no greater tale of the tape than Utah's performance as a home favorite. As they've gotten healthier, they've covered the spread in five straight when favored at home. But prior to this winning streak, they were 0-12 ATS as a home favorite and lost half of those games outright. I think they're much closer to the good team than the bad one we've seen, but their winning streak may still be hiding some of their depth issues with key role players like Joe Ingles no longer in Utah.
Dallas has excelled as a road underdog lately, covering the spread in four of five and winning three of those games outright. They lost to Utah on Christmas 120-116 and know this game could have playoff seeding implications as we approach the end of the season.
I've had a hard time getting a read on these teams all year so I'm staying away from the spread. But the total is presenting great value for us here.
The under is 9-1 in Utah's last 10 games as a home favorite and 11-4 in their last 15 overall, while it's 5-2 in the Mavericks' previous seven and 9-17 when they're an underdog.
Since the trade deadline, Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the league while the Jazz rank 24th. I expect a slower game between two strong defenses and expect the under to move to 40-20-1 in Mavericks games overall.
Pick: Under 216.5 (-110)
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