Mavericks vs Magic Prediction and Odds (Take Doncic and Dallas Away from Home)

Jan 29, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA;  Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts during a game against the Pacers.
Jan 29, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts during a game against the Pacers. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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The Magic host the Mavericks in Orlando as Dallas plays on the second leg of a back-to-back. Will that be a big enough factor to make up the difference between these two rosters? 

Let’s start with the odds via WynnBET.

Mavericks vs Magic Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Mavericks -5.5  (-110)
  • Magic +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Mavericks -220
  • Magic +180

Total:

  • 211.0 (Over -110 | Under -110)

Mavericks vs Magic Prediction and Pick

I’ll be honest — when I saw that the spread here was only 5.5 points, I blinked profusely out of confusion. I don’t get it.

Sure, the Mavericks are playing a back-to-back, and weird things can happen on tired legs, but I don’t understand this. Dallas is 7-3 in their last 10 games, including 5-1 at home and 6-1 straight up as favorites. The Magic are not. They’re 3-7 in their last 10, 2-4 at home, and are 2-6 as underdogs.

One big factor to consider in this game — Dallas will be without Kristaps Porzingis, who left their game last night with a knee injury. They still have a guy named Luka Doncic, who is putting his name back in the MVP conversation. He’s capable of shouldering the load without Porzingis, and showed it last night with a 30 point, 12 assist, 6 rebound performance.

In the second game of a back-to-back, Dallas is 5-4-0 against the spread this season. It doesn’t appear to help the Magic much, as they’re 3-6-0 against the spread this year with a rest advantage. The Magic are coming off a win over the Pistons, and are 1-8-0 in games following a win. The Magic are surprisingly worse against the spread at home than they are on the road, covering at only a 6-16 rate at home this year.

This is the Mavericks for me. You’re getting discounted odds and a closer spread than it should be because of the back-to-back narrative and the loss of Porzingis, but I’m taking the Maverics to cover.

PICK: Mavericks -5.5 (-110)


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