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Mavericks vs. Suns Prediction and Odds for Game 5 (Suns Get Right at Home)

By Joe Summers

The Suns need Devin Booker to turn his series around to avoid going down 3-2 to the Mavericks
The Suns need Devin Booker to turn his series around to avoid going down 3-2 to the Mavericks / Ron Jenkins/GettyImages
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After each team notched a pair of home wins, the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks are set for Game 5 in Phoenix at 10:00 PM EST.

At first, it looked like the Suns might cakewalk to the Conference Finals. They won Game 1 by seven before thrashing Dallas in a rout in Game 2, but Luka Doncic and the Mavericks battled back at home to even the series.

Can Phoenix keep up the trend of the home team dominating or will Dallas push the Suns to the brink with a crucial upset?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find out ahead of this pivotal Game 5 Mavericks vs Suns matchup:

Mavericks vs Suns Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Mavericks +6 (-108)
  • Suns -6 (-108)

Moneyline:

  • Mavericks: +200
  • Suns: -250

Total:

  • 213.0 (Over -108/Under -108)

Mavericks vs Suns Prediction and Pick

There's a few reasons to believe that the Suns have absorbed Dallas' best punch and should prevail in Game 5.

First, Phoenix has excelled in these spots all season. They were the NBA's best regular season team by a fair margin, and are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 as a home favorite. Dallas, meanwhile, is just 3-5 ATS in their previous eight as a road underdog.

Second, the Suns have been uncharacteristically bad these last two games. They had 17 turnovers in each game, with Chris Paul having seven in Game 3 and Devin Booker coughing it up five times each in Games 3 and 4. Phoenix had the fourth-best turnover rate in the regular season (12.9%) and I expect their stars to feel more at ease at home. Booker, in particular, has really struggled. He should bounce back in style.

Third, the Mavericks' role players have been on fire. Dorian Finley-Smith and Davis Bertans combined to shoot 12/18 from beyond the arc in Game 4, which is absurd. Phoenix had the third-best defensive rating in the league this year, but sometimes your opponent just has a wild night. If Finley-Smith and Bertans keep shooting at historic figures, then the Suns may be in trouble. But I'd bet that won't happen.

Phoenix should continue to hunt Luka on defense and try to exhaust him. That strategy has worked, for the most part, as Luka's has performed worse as the series has gone on. But the Mavericks' role players have picked up the slack. The Suns strategy is a sound one. They just need better play from their stars and worse play from Dallas' role players. We've got an entire season of evidence that regression is coming for both sides, and it starts tonight.

Give me the Suns to prevail in a get-right game. Phoenix knows they can't afford to go down 3-2 with the series headed back to Dallas, so they'll be fully engaged. Chris Paul is the ultimate steadying force and has been splendid in his entire career with his back against the wall. The Suns get the job done at home.

Pick: Suns -6 (-108)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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