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Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 1

Betting odds, pick and prediction for Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals between the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder.

By Peter Dewey

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams (8).
Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams (8). / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
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If oddsmakers are right, we’re in for a treat in the Western Conference semifinals between the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder, as this series is set at a near pick’em ahead of Tuesday night’s Game 1.

Oklahoma City is favored in Game 1 by 3.5 points, but the Mavericks have been one of the best road teams in the NBA all season long, going 25-16 straight up in the regular season and winning two of the three matchups on the road in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers. 

Do the young Thunder continue to prove people wrong?

OKC rolled in the first round, sweeping the New Orleans Pelicans, but things will get much tougher against Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the second round. 

Here’s a look at the odds, key players, and injury reports for Game 1 of this series, as well as my prediction and best bet: 

Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Mavericks vs. Thunder How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, May 7
  • Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Paycom Center
  • How to watch (TV): TNT
  • Series: Tied 0-0

Mavericks vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

  • Luka Doncic – probable
  • Maxi Kleber – out
  • Olivier Maxence-Prosper – out

Thunder Injury Report

  • No injuries to report

Mavericks vs. Thunder Key Players to Watch

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: Playing through a sprained knee, Luka Doncic still was dominant against the Los Angeles Clippers, averaging 29.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game, but he shot just 23.9 percent from beyond the arc in the series. He’s now going to have to deal with Lu Dort, a tough matchup for any player in the playoffs. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

Lu Dort: Speaking of Dort, he had Brandon Ingram locked up in the first round, holding the Pelicans star to just 14.3 points per game on 34.5 percent shooting from the field. Ingram scored just 28 points on 11-for-33 shooting when guarded by Dort. The Thunder are hoping Dort can give Luka Doncic trouble, and it’s worth noting that the defensive-minded wing shot the lights out against New Orleans, going 12-for-23 from beyond the arc. 

Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

While Dallas had an impressive record on the road in the regular season, a lot of that came as a road favorite, where it was the best team in the NBA against the spread.

As a road underdog, things are much different. 

Dallas enters Game 1 with just a 9-10 ATS record as a road underdog while the Thunder have dominated as home favorites, going 24-13 against the spread, winning those games by an average margin of 15.3 points per game.

I don’t expect a blowout tonight, but I think the Thunder are a little undervalued for a team that was No. 2 in the league in net rating and 33-8 straight up at home in the regular season.

The way to beat OKC this season has been on the glass (the Thunder are just 28th in rebounding percentage), but Dallas clocks in at No. 26 in the league in rebounding percentage, so it may not have an advantage down low. 

The Mavs did blow out the Thunder in Dallas with this core group after the trade deadline, but they also lost to OKC at Paycom Center by seven points on March 14. 

If this was a wider spread, I’d take Dallas to cover, but at nearly a one-possession mark, I like OKC to take Game 1 on its home floor. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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