Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 2 (Trust OKC)
By Peter Dewey
Game 1 of the Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder series was a bit of a shocker, as OKC dominated – especially in the second half – in a blowout win.
The spread for Game 1 was set at Thunder -3.5, but that has moved to Thunder -5 for Game 2 after Dallas struggled to score against OKC’s defense.
During the regular season, the Thunder were the No. 4 defense in the league, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that they’re able to give Dallas issues.
Plus, it’s pretty clear that Luka Doncic (knee) is not healthy. He went down multiple times in Game 1 and finished the matchup shooting 6-for-19 from the field and 1-for-8 from beyond the arc. He’s now shooting just 22.7 percent from 3 in the playoffs.
Does Dallas have a counterpunch to steal a game on the road before the series shifts to American Airlines Center?
Here’s a look at the Game 2 odds, my best bet and what to watch for in this matchup:
Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total
Mavericks vs. Thunder How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, May 9
- Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: Paycom Center
- How to watch (TV): ESPN
- Series: Thunder lead 1-0
Mavericks vs. Thunder Injury Reports
Mavs Injury Report
- Olivier Maxence-Prosper – out
- Maxi Kleber – out
- Luka Doncic – probable
Thunder Injury Report
- None to report
Mavericks vs. Thunder Key Players to Watch
Dallas Mavericks
Daniel Gafford: Dallas may have lost Game 1, but Daniel Gafford made a huge impact in 27 minutes, scoring 16 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. Not only that, but he blocked five shots. This is a bright side for the Dallas defense, especially since OKC has struggled on the glass all season long.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: SGA nearly had a triple-double in Game 1, scoring 29 points while grabbing nine rebounds and dishing out nine assists. He shot just 8-for-19 from the field, but the Thunder star attempted 13 free throws in the blowout win. OKC could go to another gear if SGA starts scoring like he did in the regular season.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick
After winning Game 1, the Thunder are now 25-13 against the spread when favored at home, winning those games by an average margin of 15.5 points per game.
I’m having a hard time trusting this Dallas team with Doncic at less than 100 percent, especially since he’s shot poorly for the majority of the playoffs – not just in Game 1.
Jalen Williams had a slow start for OKC in Game 1, but the team didn’t have any issues, getting production from Jaylin Williams and Aaron Wiggins off the bench to spur a second quarter run.
On the season, Dallas is just 9-11 against the spread as a road underdog, and I think that trend continues with the Thunder slightly favored at home in this game.
OKC’s defense has dominated in the playoffs, allowing under 100 points in all five games. If that happens in Game 2, OKC should win going away.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.