Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 5 (Go Under)

NBA betting preview and pick for Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals between the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder. 
May 11, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) guards Dallas Mavericks' guard Luka Doncic in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals.
May 11, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) guards Dallas Mavericks' guard Luka Doncic in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

With their backs against the wall, the Oklahoma City Thunder responded on the road with a 100-96 victory in Game 4 against the Dallas Mavericks to even the series at 2-2. The Western Conference Semifinals returns to Paycom Center Wednesday night for a pivotal Game 5. 

Oklahoma City is a small favorite in the matchup. Will Dallas strike back and win on the road for the second time in this series? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet. 

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook!

Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total


  • Mavericks +4.5 (-112)
  • Thunder -4.5 (-108)


  • Mavericks: +154
  • Thunder: -186 

Total: 213 (Over -108/Under -112)

Mavericks vs. Thunder How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, May 15 
  • Game time: 9:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Paycom Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): TNT
  • Series Score: Tied 2-2 

Mavericks vs. Thunder Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks 

  • Luka Doncic (ankle sprain/soreness): Probable

Oklahoma City Thunder 

  • No injuries to report 

Mavericks vs. Thunder Key Players to Watch

Dallas Mavericks

P.J. Washington: Washington has been outstanding in this series and was the Mavericks’ leading scorer (21 points) in Game 4 with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combining to go just 10-of-31 from the field. Washington is averaging 21.8 points per game in the series and is shooting 49.3% from the field and 51.4% from 3-point range. 

Oklahoma City Thunder 

Lu Dort: Aside from his stellar defense, Dort chipped in with 17 points in Game 4, his highest in the playoffs so far and fourth double-digit performance overall. Dort went just 4-of-14 from the field and 3-of-10 from beyond the arc, but a 6-for-6 performance at the free-throw line and eight rebounds were enough to push the Thunder to the top without a ton of production off the bench. 

Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma City ranks third in the NBA in home scoring defense, yielding just 109.2 points per game. It helps the Thunder’s cause that Doncic has been dealing with ankle issues and is shooting just 39% in the series. 

Oklahoma City, the No. 2 net defense in the NBA during the playoffs, can hone in on slowing down Kyrie Irving with Doncic at less than 100%. Irvin went just 4-of-11 from the field and finished with nine points in Game 4. With the Mavericks’ 1-2 punch held in check, Oklahoma City’s defense can set the tone in this matchup on its home court. 

On the other side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been terrific in this series, averaging 31.8 points. However, the Thunder have barely cracked the century mark in back-to-back games and a 23-for-24 performance at the charity stripe in Game 4 helped offset a series-worst 38% field goal percentage from the floor and 25.9% from downtown. 

Defenses have highlighted this series thus far with three of the four games going under the point total for Wednesday night. The average point total in the series has been 210.7 per game. Go under once again in a Game 5 between two defenses combining to give up just 199.6 points per game so far this postseason. 

Pick: Under 213 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.