Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets for Game 5 (Luka Doncic Bounce Back Game?)
By Peter Dewey
Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals is upon us, and the Dallas Mavericks remain just one win away from the NBA Finals entering Thursday’s matchup in Minnesota.
The Timberwolves kept their season alive with a win in Game 4 in Dallas, riding big-scoring games from Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. However, the Wolves are still facing an uphill battle for the rest of the series as no team has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit in NBA history.
Despite that, Minnesota is favored in Game 5 at home, an interesting wrinkle after Dallas won the first two games of the series despite being a road underdog.
After watching Game 4 – which didn’t feature Dereck Lively II for Dallas due to injury – how should we wager on the prop market in Game 5?
There are two role players and a star that I’m targeting on Thursday night:
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets
- Luka Doncic OVER 30.5 Points (-112)
- Mike Conley OVER 12.5 Points (+105)
- Daniel Gafford OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Luka Doncic OVER 30.5 Points (-112)
Luka Doncic came up short on this total in Game 4, scoring 28 points on 7-for-21 shooting from the field, but I am going to trust him in Game 5 to bounce back.
The usage was still there for Donicc, who had 17 points at the half, but the Timberwolves’ matchup switch – putting Anthony Edwards or Kyle Anderson on Doncic – certainly disrupted Dallas’ offense plan a bit.
Still, Doncic has scored 32 or more points in the three other games in this series, and he nearly cleared this prop with some crazy late-game shots in Game 4. While I would’ve loved it if this fell below 30.5 points, I still trust Luka to put up big numbers in a closeout game.
Mike Conley OVER 12.5 Points (+105)
Mike Conley has been huge for Minnesota in this series, scoring 14 or more points in three straight games, shooting 7-for-14, 6-for-11, and 5-for-9 from the field in those contests.
While I would have liked Conley to take a few more shots in Game 4 to see his usage up, I still think he’s going to play a big enough role with the Wolves’ backs against the wall in this series.
At times, Conley has been the top option for the Wolves on offense when Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are struggling, and he’s made 7-for-16 shots from beyond the arc in the last three games of this series as well.
If the usage is back up for Conley in Game 5 at home, I think he’s a solid value at plus money in this prop.
Daniel Gafford OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
Lively II is still likely up in the air for Game 5, which means we could see a big role for Daniel Gafford, who played 31:21 in Game 4.
Gafford is averaging 5.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs, but he’s cleared 5.5 boards in seven of his last 10 games in the playoffs.
The Mavericks will need Gafford regardless of Lively’s status, but he’ll likely play even more minutes in Game 5 since the rookie banged up.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.