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Mavericks vs. Timberwolves NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for Western Conference Finals Game 1

By Reed Wallach

Jan 7, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) drives to the basket past Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) during the second quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 7, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) drives to the basket past Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) during the second quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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The Western Conference Finals get underway on Wednesday with the Dallas Mavericks traveling to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves in Game 1. 

Minnesota must turn around after advancing in Game 7 at Denver against the Nuggets and face a Mavericks team that is peaking at the right time with trade deadline acquisitions helping rebuild the team’s defense and Luka Doncic looking healthier as the team's second-round series against the Thunder continued. 

Here’s our Game 1 betting preview for the Western Conference Finals:

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Mavericks: +4 (-108)
  • Timberwolves: -4 (-112)

Moneyline: 

  • Mavericks: +150
  • Timberwolves: -178

Total: 207 (Over -112/Under -108)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, May 22nd
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Target Center
  • How to Watch (TV): TNT

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Mavericks Injury Report

  • Olivier-Maxence Prosper - ankle - doubtful

Timberwolves Injury Report

N/A

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Key Players to Watch

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: Doncic was battling ankle and knee injuries in the second round, but got better as the series went on and helped pace the Mavericks to the team’s second conference finals in three seasons. He dropped back-to-back triple-doubles to close out OKC and played well in two meetings against the Timberwolves, averaging north of 36 points per game with six rebounds and 10 assists while shooting nearly 51% from the field and 37% from beyond the arc. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards: Edwards has raised his level in the postseason, averaging nearly 29 points per game on 50/40/84 shooting splits while also grabbing more than six rebounds and six assists. Further, he did an excellent job on defense in the second round, locking up Jamal Murray down the stretch of Game 7. Will he take turns on Doncic as the series progresses?

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

This will be an intriguing matchup all series long, but I figure that this series takes a similar shape to the Mavericks-Thunder second-round series, one that was more defensive-minded than one would think on the surface. 

Dallas will be able to continue to shut down the interior as Minnesota isn’t built to make the likes of Rudy Gobert play in space, so the likes of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II will be able to continue to shut down the rim and make life difficult for a Minnesota offense that is middling in terms of offensive production. 

On the other side, the Mavericks offense didn’t look its normal self in the second round. Luka Doncic was limited to his superhuman standards in the second round, but the team got massive contributions from the likes of P.J. Washington (46.9% three-point shooting on eight attempts per game) to out-pace OKC in lower-scoring affairs. 

I believe the pace in this one is slow and a battle in the halfcourt with more of a feel-out process on the offensive side of the floor. While I lean towards Dallas with the points, I’m going to side with the under as my favorite bet. 

PICK: UNDER 207

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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