Mavericks vs. Timberwolves NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for Western Conference Finals Game 5
By Reed Wallach
The Timberwolves extended its season on Tuesday in Game 4 in Dallas, knocking off the Mavericks, 105-100.
Minnesota played close with Dallas for the fourth straight game, but in a difference from the prior three, the Timberwolves pulled away late, executing down the stretch and keeping a lid on the Mavericks explosive offense to send the series back to Minnesota for Game 5.
The gap between the two teams is small, but is it possible for Minnesota to become the first time in 155 tries to come back from down 3-0 to win the series?
Here are the odds for Game 5 with the T’Wolves installed as a modest home favorite.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- Mavericks: +4.5 (-110)
- Timberwolves: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Mavericks: +168
- Timberwolves: -200
Total
209.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, May 30th
- Game Time: 8:30 PM EST
- Venue: Target Center
- How to Watch (TV): TNT
- Series Score: Mavericks Lead 3-1
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports
Mavericks Injury Report
Dereck Lively II - neck - questionable
Timberwolves Injury Report
N/A
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Key Players to Watch
Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic: Doncic didn’t play his best, but still put together a triple-double of 28 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists. However, the third-place MVP guard shot 33% from the field and was a team-worst -13 on the floor. Can Doncic find up his level from the field to out-pace the elite Minnesota defense?
Minnesota Timberwolves
Karl-Anthony Towns: Towns had his first positive game of the series despite fouling out, scoring 20 points in the second half to finish with 25 points while making 69% of his field goal attempts, including hitting two clutch threes. If Towns has found his shot from the perimeter, he was shooting 13% from distance in the three prior games, that’s a massive boost to Minnesota’s chances of a historic comeback. However, it’s worth noting that KAT fouled out in this game, and he must be smarter on defense to avoid the self-inflicted wounds that can tilt a game.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick
The big news in this game is the status of Mavericks big man Dereck Lively II. Lively suffered a scary neck injury in Game 3, and while the Mavericks escaped that game with a win, his loss was felt throughout. The rookie big man missed Game 4, and the Mavericks couldn’t keep the T’Wolves out of the paint as Minnesota shot 64% from 5-9 feet, up from 28% in the three games prior.
In the postseason, Lively’s impact has been incredibly impactful. Dallas scores 10.94 points per 100 possessions fewer on offense and allows 11.51 more points per 100 on defense when Lively is off the floor.
If Lively misses Game 5, I like Minnesota to beat the Mavericks again, but if he does play, he’s currently listed as questionable, I’d prefer the under.
The pace in this series has been fairly slow, about 93 possessions according to NBA.com, yet the first three games went over due to fantastic shot-making.
I believe that we are seeing a correction in this series and the shots are starting to be harder to come by and the pace can dictate the total.
After opening the series with a total of 207 in the first two games, and 207.5 in Game 3, before surging to 211.5 in Game 4 that went under. Now we are trending back in the other direction with the total at 209.5.
I think we continue to see the scoring trend downward and this game goes under the total with Lively’s status in question.
PICK: UNDER 209.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.