Memorial Tournament Picks, Odds, and Betting Preview (Past Success Is Key Indicator at Muirfield Village)
We're right in the middle of one of the best stretches of the PGA Tour season. Only a few weeks separate the PGA Championship and the US Open, and sandwiched right in the middle is one of the best non-major events of the year, the Memorial Tournament.
Set to take place at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio, the tournament always seems to bring fireworks amongst the top names in golf.
One of the strangest storylines of the 2021 PGA Tour season occurred here last year, when Jon Rahm was about to head into Sunday with a six-stroke lead, before being forced to withdraw from the tournament due to testing positive for COVID-19.
Let's start off by looking at the top 10 odds to win this year's edition of the event, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Odds to Win the Memorial Tournament
- Jon Rahm +1000
- Rory McIlroy +1100
- Patrick Cantlay +1600
- Cameron Smith +1800
- Collin Morikawa +1800
- Jordan Spieth +2000
- Viktor Hovland +2200
- Xander Schauffele +2200
- Hideki Matsuyama +2500
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
How to Handicap Muirfield Village
Ball strikers, ball strikers, and more ball strikers.
Put distance and good putting to the back of your mind. Accuracy off the tee, and approach play is of utmost importance at Muirfield Village. Additionally, strokes gained: around-the-green will also play a big role so don't even think about betting on bad chippers like Viktor Hovland.
Not only will good iron players set themselves up for birdie opportunities, but even more importantly, hitting the greens will help them avoid the treacherous areas that surround them.
You can't overpower this course. Accuracy and good hands around the greens will be what earns a golfer the win. Past success at this course has also been a big key in determining who will play well.
5 Key Stats for the Memorial Tournament
- Driving Accuracy
- Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach-The-Green
- Proximity from 175-200 Yards
- Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green
Picks to Win the Memorial Tournament
Cameron Smith +1800
Cameron Smith has been a ball-striking machine as of late. He gained 2.49 strokes on the field with his approach game at the PGA Championship, and more importantly, his driving accuracy has begun to improve. He uncharacteristically lost strokes with his putting, but he always seems to do better on faster greens, which is a big part of Muirfield Village.
My main concern is that he hasn't historically performed well at this course, but he's having his best season of his golf career by a wide-margin. He leads the Tour in strokes gained approach, and is third in total strokes gained.
Sungjae Im +3300
Sungjae Im missed over a month due to playing in Korea and contracting COVID-19, but he looked like he hadn't skipped a beat when he returned at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week, finishing T15, which is now is fourth straight start of 21st place or better.
His biggest asset this week is his play around the greens, where he ranks fourth on Tour. He's also a wizard on long approach shots, of which there are many at Muirfield Village. He's a sneaky good pick that not many people are talking about this week.
Matt Kuchar +6600
Few people in the field have had as much success at Muirfield Village than Matt Kuchar, he has a win as well as six top 10 finishes at the course, and it makes sense when you consider his style of play. His short game is dialed in ranking first on Tour in strokes gained: around-the-green, and 13th in strokes gained: putting.
He's also been in good form, finishing 16th or better in four of his last six starts. If you don't have the stomach to bet on him to win, a Top 20 bet would present a ton of value.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.