Memphis vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Odds (Bet Bearcats as Home Underdogs)

Memphis entered the season with a ton of expectations around two star freshmen in Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates, but things have gone much differently for the Tigers as the team started 9-8 on the season.

However, the switch may have been flipped for the AAC team, winners of five straight behind a shutdown defense and emerging three-point attack that includes a weekend win on the road at Houston.

Can they follow it up against another formidable conference foe in Cincinnati? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Memphis vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Memphis: -3 (-110)
• Cincinnati: +3 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Memphis: -150
• Cincinnati: +125

Total: 142.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Memphis vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick

Memphis defense has been the anchor to their success this season, but so has their emerging perimeter offense that is shooting nearly 37% from beyond the arc in AAC play.

However, Cincinnati's defense is built to run teams off the perimeter and into the teeth of their interior defense where they have a top 10 defense, holding foes to a 42% two-point percentage. The Bearcats are yielding the 16th lowest three-point rate in the country and the lowest in the AAC.

Cincy has the second best turnover rate in conference play which is massive against Memphis handsy defense that is forcing turnovers at the third highest rate in league games this season. If the home team is able to limit Memphis' attack from the perimeter and transition (allowing the 54th lowest potential points on breakaway steals per Haslemetrics), they can stay within this spread of over a bucket.

Both teams struggle to shoot free throws, each clock in at 67%. In a game that should be tight late, neither team can pull away and I expect this one to go down to the wire. Even if Memphis has turned a corner this season, I can't make them road favorites against a Cincy team that played them tough, and covered on the road against the Tigers last month.

Memphis has been overvalued in the betting market all season, going 7-13 against the spread (ATS) and I like fading them after beating the class of the conference Houston on the road.

PICK: Cincinnati +3, play to +2

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 60-54-3 for +2.9 units.