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Memphis vs. Gonzaga Prediction and Odds for Second Round of NCAA Tournament

By Reed Wallach

Mar 17, 2022; Portland, OR, USA; Memphis Tigers center Jalen Duren (2) and guard Alex Lomax (10)
Mar 17, 2022; Portland, OR, USA; Memphis Tigers center Jalen Duren (2) and guard Alex Lomax (10) / Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
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Memphis showed their tantalizing upside on Thursday afternoon, disposing of Boise State.

Now, the Memphis Tigers move onto the second round of the NCAA Tournament to face the No. 1 seed in the entire field, Gonzaga. The Bulldogs struggled against Georgia State in the first round, tied well into the second half before foul issues doomed the Panthers. Can Chet Holmgren and the Zags get back on track over the weekend and advance to the Sweet 16?

Let's find out by looking at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook and statistical profiles of both teams before making a best bet:

Memphis vs. Gonzaga Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Memphis +10.5 (-110)
  • Gonzaga: -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Memphis: +650
  • Gonzaga: -1000

Total: 154 (Over -110/Under -110)

Memphis vs. Gonzaga Analysis

Memphis

  • Regular Season Record: 21-9
  • ATS Record:15-14-1
  • Over/Under Record: 16-14
  • SoS: 56th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 110.9
  • Defensive Efficiency: 94.0
  • eFG%: 52.8%
  • FT%: 69.5%
  • 3PT%: 36.4%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +10000

Gonzaga

  • Overall Record: 23-2
  • ATS Record:13-10-2
  • Over/Under Record: 10-15 
  • SoS: 14th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 122.9
  • Defensive Efficiency: 89.4
  • eFG%: 59.8%
  • FT%: 72%
  • 3PT%: 37.5%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: National Runner-Up
  • Odds to win National Championship: +325

Memphis vs. Gonzaga Prediction and Pick

I see an avenue to an upset for Penny Hardaway's Tigers. The team is elite at pressuring the ball and has the size to bother both Holmgren and Drew Timme. We saw earlier this season a bruising front court in Duke give the Zags issues.

Now, there are some caveats to this. Mark Few surely has an edge in the coaching department over Hardaway and Memphis is one of the sloppiest teams in the country, bottom 10 in turnover rate. The Zags don't force a lot of turnovers, but the team must be on their best behavior when it comes to ball handling against their opponent's No. 1 offense.

With that being said, I still believe in the frontcourt physicality keeping the Tigers within shouting distance. The likes of Jalen Duren, Malcolm Dandridge and DeAndre Williams can throw bodies at the Zags front court that is the best interior offense in the country, scoring on more than 60% of their tries. To that point, Memphis is top 20 at 2-point percentage allowed.

Over the last month, Memphis is playing like a top 10 team, per barttorvik.com. Yes, the team needs to remain disciplined, but I believe their ball pressure can bother the Bulldogs backcourt and lead to some transition buckets. I'm expecting plenty of points and for Memphis to put another scare into the No. 1 seed, maybe even beat them.

PICK: Memphis +10.5, play to +9


You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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