Betsided

Memphis vs. SMU Prediction and Odds (Mustangs Tough Matchup for Streaking Tigers)

By Iain MacMillan

SMU and Memphis are set to face-off for the second time this college basketball season.
SMU and Memphis are set to face-off for the second time this college basketball season. / Christine Tannous / The Commercial
facebooktwitterreddit

The second and third placed teams in the AAC are set to square-off on Sunday afternoon when the Memphis Tigers hit the road to take on the SMU Mustangs.

Memphis has turned a corner in recent weeks, and is finally starting to look like the team that people expected at the start of the season. The Tigers have won six-straight games including an upset victory for No. 6 Houston. They now get the chance to avenge a 70-62 loss to SMU, which is the last loss they suffered on their schedule.

Meanwhile, SMU will be looking to get back in the win column after stumbling against Temple their last game out.

Let's take a look at the odds via WynnBET for this afternoon's AAC matchup.

Memphis vs. SMU Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Memphis -2.5 (-110)
  • SMU +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Memphis -145
  • SMU +120

Total:

  • 146.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Memphis vs. SMU Betting Trends

  • Memphis is 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • SMU is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games vs. Memphis.
  • Memphis is 3-6 ATS in its last nine road games.
  • SMU is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games.
  • The UNDER is 12-6 in the last 18 meetings between these teams.

Memphis vs. SMU Prediction and Pick

If you want to beat this SMU team, your best bet is to attack them on the perimeter. The Mustangs' biggest strength on defensive is their interior play. That's bad news for a Memphis team that ranks 67th in the country in two-point shot rate. SMU currently ranks 16th in college basketball in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot just 44.7% from down low.

I'll continue to shy away from betting on Memphis, despite its recent hot streak, for one big reason. The Tigers continue to cough the ball up at one of the highest rates in the country. The Tigers rank 349th in turnovers per possessions, which is the 10th highest rate in all of college basketball. Those sort of numbers can catch up to a team at any time, especially when they're playing on the road.

I'll stay away from this one, but I'd certainly lean towards the Mustangs.

Lean: Mustangs +2.5

Iain is 67-61-2 (+2.27 units) with his college basketball bets this 2021-22 season. You can find his detailed record for the 2022 calendar year here.

Home/College Basketball Predictions and Picks