Mercury vs. Aces Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Season Opener

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Phoenix Mercury-Las Vegas Aces matchup on opening night.
Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson.
Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Las Vegas Aces, the two-time reigning champions, open the 2024 season at home against Diana Taurasi and the Phoenix Mercury, who finished with the worst record in the WNBA last season, winning just nine games. 

As expected the odds for this matchup show that we could be in for a lopsided game, as the Aces are favored by 16.5 points.

Both teams are down key players in this matchup, as Chelsea Gray has been ruled out for Las Vegas while Brittney Griner (fractured toe) will not play for the Mercury. 

Should bettors lay the massive number with the WNBA’s best team on opening night?

Here’s a look at my best bet, the latest odds and more for Tuesday’s showdown: 

Mercury vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total


  • Mercury +16.5 (-110)
  • Aces -16.5 (-110)


  • Mercury: +900
  • Aces: -1600


  • 169 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mercury vs. Aces How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, May 14
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN 2
  • Mercury record: 0-0
  • Aces record: 0-0

Mercury vs. Aces Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

  • Morgan Bertsch – probable
  • Brittney Griner – out

Aces Injury Report

  • Chelsea Gray – out

Mercury vs. Aces Key Players to Watch

Phoenix Mercury 

Diana Taurasi: A 10-time All-Star and three-time WNBA champion, Taurasi is arguably the greatest player in the history of women’s basketball, but she’s nearing the end of her career. Last season, the 41-year-old averaged just 16.0 points per game while shooting 40.3 percent from the field. It’ll be interesting to see if Taurasi can handle another major workload with Brittney Griner missing the first game of the season. 

Las Vegas Aces

A’ja Wilson: The two-time MVP and reigning two-time Defensive Player of the Year, A’ja Wilson is looking to show the league why she’s the best player it has in 2024. Wilson averaged 22.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game in 2023, but she still finished third in the league’s MVP voting. That may give her a chip on her shoulder in 2024. 

Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Not only did the Mercury finish with the worst straight-up record in the league last season, but they were also just 14-26 against the spread, including a dreadful 5-15 against the spread on the road. 

That’s not going to bode well against a Las Vegas team that lost just one game at home in the regular season in 2023, going 18-9 ATS in Vegas overall. 

Phoenix should be a better team this season after adding Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper in the offseason, but I question how the team will defend Wilson down low with Griner out. 

Even without Gray, the Aces have plenty of other options they can lean on scoring the ball, including Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young. I won’t fade the defending champs in their home building against a clearly inferior opponent. 

Pick: Aces -16.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.