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Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Odds for WNBA Playoffs First Round (How High Is Too High for Aces to Cover?)

By Ben Heisler

Kelsey Plum, Riquna Williams and the Las Vegas Aces are as high as 16.5-point favorites over the Phoenix Mercury in Game 1 of the WNBA Playoffs.
Kelsey Plum, Riquna Williams and the Las Vegas Aces are as high as 16.5-point favorites over the Phoenix Mercury in Game 1 of the WNBA Playoffs. / Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
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The Phoenix Mercury backed their way into the postseason; snagging the eighth and final seed in the postseason with the Minnesota Lynx and Atlanta Dream both losing on Sunday.

Now, they'll face the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces in Game 1 of their best-of-three series as one of the most lopsided underdogs of the year.

Both Skylar Diggins-Smith (personal) and Diana Taurasi (quad) have been ruled out for the late game tonight, while Aces forward Dearica Hamby is out indefinitely with a knee injury.

Can the Mercury find a way to stun the Aces on the road? At worst, can they hang around long enough to cover the spread?

Here are the latest odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for Game 1 at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas.

Mercury vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Mercury +16 (-110)
  • Aces -16 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Mercury +950
  • Aces -1800

Total:

  • 167.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

The Aces are deserving of their massive point spread, but 16 points is a lot to cover in a postseason game. Therefore, I'll focus on backing the under instead.

Losing both Diggins-Smith as well as Taurasi is devastating for Phoenix against the most explosive offense in the WNBA. The two of them accounted for 44.8% of the team's points per game this season, and that includes the 16 games that Tina Charles (now on Seattle) was on the team.

To the Mercury's credit, they still found a way to go 2-2 down the stretch, playing some of their best defense of the year. They held the New York Liberty to only 62 points back on Aug. 6, as well as limiting the Dallas Wings to just 74 points in both wins, while Diamond DeShields and Sophie Cunningham both stepped up in Diggins-Smith and Taurasi's absence; leading the way in scoring.

They'll need that improved defense to try and somewhat contain Las Vegas, who finished the season with the top offensive rating in the league. The Aces also finished 4-0 down the stretch of the season to snatch away the top seed from the Chicago Sky, and had a net rating in those games of +10.1; second-best in the WNBA behind only the Connecticut Sun.

Even if Las Vegas is firing on all cylinders in their matchup, a blowout is likely to play into the favor of the under, as Phoenix will have all sorts of issues scoring regardless of who's on the floor.

PICK: UNDER 167.5 (-110)

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