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Mercury vs. Dream prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 25 (Does Atlanta bounce back?)

The Atlanta Dream are looking to snap a two-game skid on Tuesday against Phoenix.

By Peter Dewey

Atlanta Dream guard Rhyne Howard (10) drives to the basket.
Atlanta Dream guard Rhyne Howard (10) drives to the basket. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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Are the Phoenix Mercury turning their season around? 

After a brutal start to the season, Phoenix is 4-6 in its last 10 games, climbing out of last place in the Western Conference in the process. The Mercury have a tough road matchup on Tuesday night though, as they’ll take on Rhyne Howard and the 12-10 Atlanta Dream.

The Dream rattled off seven straight wins to move to 12-8 on the season, but they dropped their last two games against the Connecticut Sun. 

Phoenix is a much easier matchup than the Sun, but the team did beat Connecticut the last time it faced it. The Dream have gotten guard Aari McDonald back from injury, but the Mercury don’t have as clear of an injury report. 

Phoenix Mercury injury report 

  • Skylar Diggins-Smith (out)
  • Diana Taurasi (day-to-day)

If Taurasi misses this game, Phoenix could be in trouble as it has struggled without her this season. 

Here’s a look at the odds and my best bet for Tuesday’s matchup: 

Mercury vs. Dream odds, spread and total

Mercury vs. Dream prediction and pick

The Dream badly need a bounce-back game here to avoid slipping in the Eastern Conference standings. 

The team has struggled at home this season from an against the spread standpoint – going 5-6 – but it may be in luck against this Phoenix team. 

The Mercury are just 1-5 without Taurasi this season, so her status will be key to this game. Regardless, Phoenix is a brutal 2-9 against the spread on the road and 7-15 against the spread overall. 

I usually wouldn't mind a play on the OVER in a Dream game since the team is No. 1 in the WNBA in pace, but the Mercury are ninth in the league in offensive rating and dead last in points per game. 

This Phoenix team struggles in multiple areas on offense, ranking ninth in the league in 3-point percentage (Atlanta is fourth) and leading the league in turnovers per game (17.4). 

That’s not going to get it done against an Atlanta team due for a bounce back after a couple tough games against a playoff-caliber team.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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