Mets vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Monday, July 11 (Max Fried is an All-Star, but Max Scherzer is a Legend)
By Josh Yourish
Game 1 between New York and Atlanta promises to excite, with two electric pitchers on the mound.
Max Scherzer gets the ball for the tenth time in a Mets uniform, he is 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA. Max Fried, the recently selected first-time all-star, is 9-2 with a 2.52 ERA in 17 starts. Tonight he makes his 18th in one of the most important pre all-star break series in the MLB.
Atlanta is 52-35, 1.5 games back of the 53-33 Mets for first place in the NL East.
You can find odds for this NL East matchup at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Mets +1.5 (-190)
- Braves -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline
- Mets +120
- Braves -130
Total
- 7.0 (Over -125 / Under +105)
Mets vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Max Fried was recently selected to his first all-star team for a reason. The lefty has a great ERA, an even better FIP, has only allowed 6 home runs and has 100 strikeouts to 17 walks in 107.1 innings. The Braves have won each of his last nine starts and they are 13-4 when he takes the mound this season.
Max Scherzer made his return from injury on July 5 and dominated Cincinnati. He went six scoreless and had 11 punch outs. It is a smaller sample size due to injury, but the 37-year-old has frankly been better than Fried this year. Scherzer has a better weighted on base average, a better hard hit rate, a better strikeout rate, and a better expected ERA. He is also in the top 10% of the league in each of those categories.
There are a few signs of age on Max Scherzer most of them arise when you look at his fastball. The velocity is down from around 95 MPH at his peak to 93.7 MPH this year and has the lowest whiff rate since 2017. 2017 was also the last time his run value on his fastball was a -3. Still a positive pitch, but when you compare that to a -29 in 2018 or a -18 a year ago, it doesn’t hold up quite the same.
However, if you think back to 2017, all Scherzer did with that -3 run value fastball was win the Cy Young. I'm taking the better pitcher at + odds.
Pick: Mets ML +120
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