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Mets vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, July 13 (Don't Be "Jelly" of the Roll Morton is On)

By Ben Heisler

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Charlie Morton (50) has a 1.60 ERA and 42 strikeouts over his past five starts.
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Charlie Morton (50) has a 1.60 ERA and 42 strikeouts over his past five starts. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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At the start of June, the former World Series Champion Atlanta Braves were four games under .500; 10.5 games back of the division-leading New York Mets.

Since June 1, Atlanta has gone 30-9, catapulting themselves up to 53-36 on the season, and trailing their division rival by just one game in the win column for first place in the NL East.

Even in July, Wednesday afternoon is a pivotal rubber game from Atlanta when two veteran right-handers match up in Chris Bassitt for the Mets against Charlie Morton of the Braves.

With the season series tied at 3-3, who does Vegas like to come out on top today?

Here are the latest odds for today's getaway day matinee over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mets +1.5 (-160)
  • Braves -1.5 (+170)

Moneyline:

  • Mets +137
  • Braves -147

Total:

  • 8 (OVER +100 | UNDER -120)

Mets vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

While certainly not the end-all-be-all for Atlanta's turnaround, Charlie Morton's ability to get right since the middle of June can't be overstated.

Since June 17, Morton through five starts has a 1.60 ERA through 33.2 innings, giving up just six earned runs while striking out 42 batters.. He's limited opponents to a .157 batting average against, and a puny .261 slugging percentage. In that time, he's lowered his ERA from 5.67 to 4.21, while also bringing down his Fielder Independent Pitching, or FIP from 4.55 to 3.88.

For New York, Bassitt has had a solid year with a 3.94 ERA and expected ERA (xERA) of 3.11. He's also been very good since the middle of June, pitching to a 2.60 ERA in 27.2 innings and an impressive 24-3 K/BB ratio.

While I like the Braves to win, given Morton's impressive run, I'll ultimately take the first five under here due to both pitchers' recent strong run of success. Once Bassitt goes the third time through the order, his ERA balloons to over 7. Ironically, Morton's issues have come through the first time through the order, but given his newfound success, I don't see that being an issue today

LEAN: F5 UNDER 4 (-120)

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