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Mets vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Sunday, June 23

Sunday Night Baseball features the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs in a National League midseason clash.

By Benjamin Upson

Jun 22, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (52) dives safely into first base as New York Mets first base Pete Alonso (20) makes a late tag during the sixth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 22, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (52) dives safely into first base as New York Mets first base Pete Alonso (20) makes a late tag during the sixth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
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The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs meet in their series finale Sunday at Wrigley Field. This is the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game and both teams will be showcased to the nation. If you go back in time, these two teams clashed in the 2015 National League Championship series.

Both teams are at interesting junctures of 36-39 and 37-40 where decisions will have to be made in about a month regarding the trade deadline. There has not been a close game to this point of the series with New York winning 11-1 on Friday, followed by Chicago grabbing an 8-1 victory Saturday.

All odds listed in the article are via BetMGM Sportsbook

Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Spread, and Total

Run line:

  • Mets -1.5 (+155)
  • Cubs +1.5 (-189)

Moneyline:

  • Mets -105
  • Cubs -115

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Mets vs. Cubs Betting Trends

  • Mets are 17-16 on the road this season
  • Cubs are 14-12 as the home favorite this season
  • Mets are 8-2 in their past 10 games
  • Cubs averaging 4.24 runs in games at home

Mets vs. Cubs: How To Watch

  • Date: Sunday, June 23rd
  • Game Time: 7:10 PM
  • Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
  • How To Watch (TV, Streaming): ESPN, ESPN App
  • Mets Record: 36-39
  • Cubs Record: 37-40

Mets vs. Cubs Key Players To Watch

Mets

Pete Alonso: The winning streak has coincided with recent success off the bat of Pete Alonso. The veteran first baseman is currently on a 7-game hitting streak with 2 home runs and 10 RBI in that span. He’s finally found his offensive rhythm and has boosted his season stats to a .244 average with 16 home runs and 42 RBI. He’s not quite on pace for his 2023 numbers but is still one of the leaders of this Mets team. Alonso’s longest hitting streak so far this season was 9 games between May 15-24.

Cubs

Ian Happ: It’s been a leave of absence for Cubs left fielder Ian Happ, who has yet to record a hit in this series against the Mets. Happ recorded 2 hits in 5 consecutive games before the weekend began against the Giants and Cardinals. It’s been a consistent 2024 season to this point for Happ, batting .231 with 9 home runs and 39 RBI. One time being anchored in the top third of the lineup, his new home is hovering near the cleanup spot now.

Mets vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Looking based off records, it’s a good question why this is the featured Sunday night game. Given the mediocrity of the National League, it’s actually an interesting rubber match in this series with both teams in the thick of the NL wild card race. This may potentially be the onset of a thriller in a series that has been quite one sided across both games.

Luis Severino takes the mound in this Sunday night tango for the Mets. The numbers are feasible, 4-2 with a 3.52 ERA, 61 strikeouts and a 1.20 WHIP. He’s coming off a horrific outing, despite a 7-6 win against Texas on Tuesday. Severino allowed 6 runs to come across the plate, including a pair of home runs but did end up tossing 6.1 innings of work. Severino has racked up 84.1 innings this season, tied for 36th in the MLB and most on the Mets staff.

Javier Assad is the opposing pitcher for the Cubs. This is a very even matchup as Assad’s numbers compare rather well to Severino’s. He’s 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA, with 79 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP. Assad’s ERA is 9th best in baseball, highlighted by an impressive April with 32 innings pitched, 7 earned runs and 27 strikeouts across 6 starts. Assad pitched against the Mets on April 30th, tallying 5 innings with an earned run on 5 hits and a strikeout.

Both teams are rather average by league standards. The Mets have more of an advantage in offensive metrics, 11th in team batting average (.248) and 8th in runs per game (4.7). As for the Cubs, their pitching has been more reliable with a team earned run average of 14th in the MLB (3.88), including 5th in strikeouts per 9 innings (9.02 a game). It’s not flashy baseball, but both teams are navigating their way through a confusing and rather tumultuous National League.

This game is nearly at an even price, which makes sense based on how the analytics show up on paper. With recent form, I’m going to side with the Mets here. Overall, Severino has been the more durable pitcher this season, while his offense has found a groove and a winning streak, including 8-2 in their past 10 games. All of a sudden, the course of 2024 for the Mets has gone from bleak to signs of possibility. Off a massive loss Saturday, I’ll take a swing on New York in primetime.

Pick: Mets -105

Note: Game odds are subject to change.

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