Mets vs. Cubs Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 16 (Buy In On the Marcus Stroman Revenge Game?)

As teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners head into the final week of the first half with double digit win streaks, the Chicago Cubs are streaking in the opposite direction.

Chicago has lost seven games in a row, and have been outscored by 20 runs over their last 10 games, including an 8-0 shutout at the hands of the New York Mets Thursday night.

The four game series continues with a double-header today, as Friday's game was postponed due to rain. Taijuan Walker matches up with former Mets starter Marcus Stroman this afternoon from the Friendly Confines.

Here are the odds for today's matinee from Wrigley Field via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Mets -1.5 (+130)
• Cubs +1.5 (-150)

Moneyline:

• Mets -120
• Cubs +100

Total:

• 8 (OVER +100 | UNDER -120)

Mets vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Stroman has been unlucky this year. His ERA comes in at 4.91, but his Fielder Independent Pitching, or FIP is closer to 4.03 with an expected FIP (xFIP) of 3.39; more than a run-and-a-half difference. The majority of the season he's given up two runs or less in every outing with the exception of three blow-up games, including back in June when he had to wear it for Chicago with a taxed bullpen vs. the Cardinals. Stroman in four innings gave up nine earned runs vs. their division rival, and they couldn't afford to take him out of the game.

As for Walker, he's due for some regression. The ERA is sparkling at 2.63, but via Fangraphs, his expected ERA is nearly a full run higher at 3.56.

Stroman's departure from the Mets this offseason seemed like a welcome move for both sides, and he'll be fired up to face his former team. With some positive regression to the mean likely on the way, I'll back Chicago as a dog this afternoon.

LEAN: Cubs ML +100

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This article was written for Friday's game, but has been updated for Game 1 of the Saturday double-header.