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Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction and Odds for Friday, June 3 (New York Solves Matrix that is Mr. Tyler Anderson)

By Ben Heisler

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Anderson has not recorded a loss this season; going 6-0 with a 2.90 ERA in seven starts.
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Anderson has not recorded a loss this season; going 6-0 with a 2.90 ERA in seven starts. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
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Maybe the New York Mets should have worn their black uniforms and switched their cap letters to a gold "P," because that appears to be the lone L.A. Dodgers kryptonite this year.

Fresh off a home sweep to the Pittsburgh Pirates for the first time in 20-plus years, the Dodgers rebounded with a 2-0 shutout Thursday night vs. the Mets to begin their four game series.

Tonight, right-hander Chris Bassitt goes for the Metropolitans as he looks to improve on a 4-2 record and 3.66 ERA. The task will be tall as he's opposed by Dodgers left-hander Tyler Anderson, who's yet to lose a game in nine appearances and seven starts for L.A.

Can the Mets even up the series? Or will Anderson and the Dodgers avoid another "L" on his record?

Here are the odds for arguably the MLB game of the night in L.A. over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Mets vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mets +1.5 (-155)
  • Dodgers -1.5 (+127)

Moneyline:

  • Mets +140
  • Dodgers +150

Total:

  • 8.5 (OVER +105 | UNDER -125)

Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Has Anderson simply been unbelievable? Or unbelievably lucky? Perhaps it's a little bit of both.

The 32-year old southpaw is in the midst of a career season with the Dodgers. A key to his success has been his ability to limit hard contact while ranking in the 3rd percentile with fastball velocity. He's also getting hitters to swing at bad pitches at a career high; ranking in the 97th percentile in chase rate.

Tyler Anderson's pitcher profile at Baseball Savant (MLB Statcast)
Tyler Anderson's pitcher profile at Baseball Savant (MLB Statcast) / MLB.com

What the data also says is Anderson might be due to regress soon. Despite his success, he only ranks in the 45th percentile for expected slugging percentage and 35th for barrel percentage. That's in the bottom part of the league, and as more talented teams like the Mets get updated scouting reports on Anderson, they're more aware of when to stay away from chasing bad balls out of the zone.

Bassitt has also had a very good year in New York, and like Anderson, he's been great at forcing weak contact. In fact, the average velocity hit off his pitches is the best in baseball this year.

Both teams are ultimately evenly matched with two very solid pitchers on the hill. I'll take the discount on New York as they look to bounce back in the series.

PICK: Mets ML +140

Follow Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

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