Mets vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick for Saturday, June 25 (I Hope You Like Runs)

Chris Bassitt has a 12.27 ERA in his last three home starts as the Mets take on the Marlins today
Chris Bassitt has a 12.27 ERA in his last three home starts as the Mets take on the Marlins today / Rich Schultz/GettyImages

The Marlins host the New York Mets this afternoon at 4:10 in the second game of a three-game tilt in Miami.

Trevor Rogers starts for a Miami squad that's been rolling of late. Rogers, on the other hand, has been a disaster. He has a 7.27 ERA in June and an 8.85 ERA at home.

New York counters with Chris Bassitt, who is also struggling. Bassitt has a 5.46 road ERA, though he's thrown a quality start in three of his last four outings.

Can Bassitt continue to build on a decent stretch or will the Miami hold serve at home?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET to find the value in this Mets vs Marlins matchup:

Mets vs Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mets -1.5 (+112)
  • Marlins +1.5 (-135)


  • Mets: -143
  • Marlins: +133


  • 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mets vs Marlins Prediction and Pick

If you have faith in either one of these starters, you're a braver soul than I.

Trevor Rogers has forfeited all the good will he built last year by becoming one of the worst starters in MLB this season. In 17.1 innings this month, he's allowed 21 hits and 15 runs while issuing 14 walks. The Mets aren't great against left-handed pitchers, but I'm not sure Rogers could limit a YMCA team right now.

On the other end, Chris Bassitt has looked pretty sharp at home, but his road struggles persist. In his last three road outings, Bassitt has a 12.27 ERA and surrendered five home runs.

Throw in the fact that this is the second time this week each lineup will face these pitchers, and every sign points directly to the over. It's 6-1 in Rogers' last seven starts and 6-2 in Bassitt's last eight.

I trust these lineups far more than these middling starters, and neither bullpen is stout. Back the over at plus money as each offense has their way with Rogers and Bassitt.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.