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Mets vs. Marlins Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 30 (Can Carrasco Keep Cruising in July?)

By Ben Heisler

New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco has only allowed three earned runs in the month of July through four starts.
New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco has only allowed three earned runs in the month of July through four starts. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
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The New York Mets are streaking into their Saturday matchup against the Miami Marlins; winners of four straight games and 7-3 over their last 10 games.

They have 31 wins both at home and on the road as they take on a Marlins team that's just 22-24 in their home ballpark, and can't seem to hit the baseball post-All-Star break.

Carlos Carrasco hopes to stay hot for the Mets in July; looking for his third win this month. He's set to be opposed by 25-year old right-hander Nick Neidert, who is expected to be called up for his first start of the season after starting seven games last year.

Here are the latest odds for today's matchup via WynnBET Sportsbook:

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mets -1.5 (-120)
  • Marlins +1.5 (+100)

Moneyline:

  • Mets -185
  • Marlins +170

Total:

  • 8 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Mets vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

After a brutal month of June, Carrasco has really turned things around in the month of July.

The veteran right-hander had a 6.37 ERA in six starts, averaging less than 5 innings per start. This month, however, he's been far better with a 1.21 ERA in 22.1 innings, averaging 5.2 innings per appearance. He's given up just three earned runs all month-long, and if you're wondering why his leash has been so short despite his success, you may have just answered your own question.

Carrasco struggles mightily the third time through the order, as his ERA goes from 3.28 the first time around, to 3.81 the second, and then 4.56 after that. The Mets have discovered that the best way to keep him effective is to get him out right around the sixth inning or earlier.

The matchup is also ideal, as the Marlins have the third-worst offense in the Big Leagues since the All-Star Break in weighted on-base average (wOBA), as well as weighted runs created plus (wRC+) behind only the Los Angeles Angels and Pittsburgh Pirates.

That's why I'm backing the Mets to cover the run line in the first five innings. This way, Carrasco can continue his strong play, and by the time he's out, New York will have likely gotten to Neidert in his first action of 2022.

LEAN: Mets F5 -0.5 (-130)

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

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