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Mets vs. Nationals Prediction and Odds for Sunday, April 10 (Fade Carlos Corrasco into Oblivion)

By Joe Summers

The Mets hope to complete a sweep of the Nationals today but value is on the underdog
The Mets hope to complete a sweep of the Nationals today but value is on the underdog / Greg Fiume/GettyImages
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The 3-0 New York Mets hope to complete a sweep of Washington to open the year as they take on the 0-3 Nationals today at 1:35 p.m. EST.

They'll send Carlos Corrasco to the mound but can't have much confidence in him today. By all accounts, he was dreadful last year, going 1-5 over 12 starts with a 6.04 ERA.

Washington will counter with Erick Fedde, who wasn't much better with a 5.47 ERA over 27 starts.

Can the Nationals avoid an 0-4 start or will the Mets keep rolling to get the season underway?

Let's take a gander at the odds from WynnBET as we search for value in this Mets vs Nationals matchup:

Mets vs Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Mets -1.5 (+112)
  • Nationals +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline:

  • Mets: -136
  • Nationals: +125

Total:

  • 9.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Mets vs Nationals Prediction and Pick

Corrasco was one of my favorite pitchers to fade last year and he's done little to make me think I should stop. He allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts and surrendered another five earned runs over 8.1 innings in spring training.

He was even worse on the road than at home in 2021, posting a 6.17 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched).

To be honest, Fredde hasn't inspired much confidence, either. He gave up at least four earned runs in four of his last six starts. However, he didn't give up a single run over nine innings in the spring while striking out nine.

Fredde's 5.47 ERA last year was terrible, yes, but his 4.66 FIP suggests he's a positive regression candidate. If you're unfamiliar, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) gives us an estimate of how many runs we'd expect a pitcher to give up with an average defense. Meaning, Fredde was a bit unlucky last season.

I think the Mets should be underdogs most times Corrasco is pitching, and I love the Nationals' chances of getting their first win of 2022 today.

Pick: Nationals +125

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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