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Mets vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, June 7 (Over is the Best Bet)

By Reed Wallach

Jun 4, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) celebrates
Jun 4, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) celebrates / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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The Mets just keep on rolling.

New York took care of business in their series opener on Monday against the Padres, winning 11-5, behind Eduardo Escobar's cycle and 6 runs batted in. Can the Mets keep it up against Yu Darvish, who has been far better at PETCO Park than on the road.

Here are the odds for Tuesday's matchup with odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

  • Mets: +1.5 (-200)
  • Padres: -1.5 (+165)

Moneyline:

  • Mets: +111
  • Padres: -121

Total: 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mets vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Darvish's home/road splits are staggering. He has a 5.82 ERA in 6 starts, but that number is 1.71 in 4 starts at home. The Padres starter is worthy of being favored over the 38-19 Mets at home, but I do believe the New York offense can plate enough runs to clear this low total on Tuesday.

The Mets are simply too good offensively. The team is 3rd in on-base percentage across baseball since the beginning of May and will challenge Darvish, who has seen his strikeout rate drop by 3 batters per 9 innings compared to last season. While Darvish's 4.03 ERA is more than a half run higher than his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), the Mets are putting the ball in play and generating run scoring chances at a top 3 clip this season (wRC+). I'm not fading this offense.

It's worth noting that the Padres played an extra innings game on Sunday, travelled home, and used the bullpen for 5 innings in the 11-5 loss on Monday.

On the other side, I don't trust Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker at all. Walker has been flirting with disaster all season, striking out less than 5 batters per 9 innings this season and has a FIP nearly 1 run higher. He is generating a low amount of swing and misses and it's a matter of time before he gets tagged badly.

I think that comes Tuesday against a Padres team that was able to do their fair share at the plate, scoring 5 runs against Carlos Carrasco.

I think we are in line for another high scoring matchup after Monday's 16 run affair.

LEAN: OVER 7.5


You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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