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Mets vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Friday, August 19 (Aaron Nola Remains an Under-Appreciated Ace )

By Ben Heisler

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) mowed down the New York Mets in his last start, going 8 IP allowing 1 ER and 8 strikeouts.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) mowed down the New York Mets in his last start, going 8 IP allowing 1 ER and 8 strikeouts. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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Fresh off their road series against the Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets' continue their road trip back north for a Friday night showdown with a fellow NL East counterpart in the Philadelphia Phillies this evening.

The Phillies' hot offense finally cooled off in a 1-0 loss Thursday on the road vs. Cincinnati after scoring 15 runs in their previous two games. Meanwhile, the Mets face yet another ace on the road after going through Braves left-hander Max Fried on Thursday.

Philadelphia's odds of catching up to the Mets are slim with a double digit deficit, but can they start chipping away Friday night with arguably their best starter on the bump?

Here are the latest odds for tonight's matchup at Citizens Bank Park from DraftKings Sportsbook:

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mets +1.5 (-175)
  • Phillies -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline:

  • Mets +110
  • Phillies -130

Total:

  • 8.5 (OVER -105 | UNDER -115)

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

I'm on record here at BetSided of saying Aaron Nola has been blatantly dismissed in the NL Cy Young voting market. Since his hiccup against the Braves back on July 26 (6 IP, 5 ER), he's been sensational over his last three starts; going 20 IP, allowing only one run in each of his last three starts while striking out 21 batters.

Now while he's not going to pass Alcantara any time soon (yes, that bold prediction seems to have gotten the best of me), he's still among the league's best pitchers and is available against a very good Mets team at a very reasonable price. The sample against New York this year is very good for Nola, and has actually looked better in each start he faces them. His previous game on August 13 was in New York, and Nola shut them down in 8 innings; giving up just a single run, with one walk and eight punch outs.

Bassitt has also had a very good year. In 22 starts, he's got a 3.27 ERA with a 3.55 FIP, so his numbers actually match up where he should be. He too, had a very good start vs. his current opponent his last time out; shutting out Philadelphia over five innings.

Both these starters have been great against these teams all year, and I don't think anything changes on Friday night. I'll back the under at a very reasonable line of 8.5 runs.

PICK: UNDER 8.5 (-115)

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