Mets vs. Pirates Game 2 Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, Sept. 7 (New York a Massive Favorite with deGrom Going)
By Ben Heisler
The Pittsburgh Pirates entered Wednesday's doubleheader vs. the New York Mets as the worst team in strikeout rate in the Major Leagues the second half; whiffing on 26.2% of their at-bats in the second half.
To steal a line from Stugotz of the Dan Le Batard Show: Jacob deGrom... Pirates offense... Collision course.
Oddsmakers aren't giving the Buccos a chance in Game 2 of their doubleheader from PNC Park tonight, putting New York on the board at almost consensus -400 favorites. However, Pirates starter Johan Oviedo looked good in his first start since being called up; going 3 innings without an earned run allowed to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Is there value on either of these teams elsewhere? Let's take a look at the latest odds.
Mets vs. Pirates Game 2 Odds, Run Line and Total
Mets vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
The Mets' offense may have woken up in Game 1, but I'm not ready to lay -225 odds at -1.5 on the run line, even vs. this Pirates' lineup vs. Jacob deGrom. New York has had some major issues over the last two weeks, particularly with scoring runs.
There are 26 games left and the Mets are tied with the Braves. For the first time since April 11, the Mets aren't in sole possession of first place.
— Will Sammon (@WillSammon) September 7, 2022
Since Aug. 22, the Mets are 6-7. In that span, they have a .653 OPS (23rd) & 90 wRC+ (21st). They've averaged 2.9 runs per game.
Because of this, I'll take the first five under instead, knowing that deGrom is all but a lock to deliver. The veteran right-hander has allowed a total of three runs in the first five innings this year with an ERA of 0.90 and a batting average against of .110.
I also like Oviedo in this spot as well. The big right-hander, acquired in the José Quintana deal with the St. Louis Cardinals gave up just two hits in three shutout innings his last time out, striking out four but walking three. In his four games in Triple-A before the call-up, he had an ERA of 0.79 while striking out 10.3 hitters per nine.
With two struggling offenses in a doubleheader, I think this is a great spot to zig away from betting a massive number on the Mets, and jump on board elsewhere at good value.
PICK: Mets-Pirates F5 UNDER 3.5 (-113)