Mets vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Monday, July 4 (Under Is Strong Play With Mets Offense Struggling)

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

New York and Cincinnati kickoff a three-game series at Great American Ballpark tonight. The Mets still hold first place in the NL East, but Atlanta is breathing down their necks. Cincinnati occupies the basement of the NL Central and is preparing to unload what talent they do have at the trade deadline. 

Today’s matchup on the mound heavily favors the Mets with Taijuan Walker taking the hill and Hunter Greene doing so for the Reds. 

Odd are available at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Mets -1.5 (+100)
  • Reds +1.5 (-120)


  • Mets -153
  • Reds +143


  • 9.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)

Mets vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Hunter Greene has not been very good on the mound for Cincinnati, he has shown promise at times, but promise only gets you to a 3-9 record and 5.72 ERA. I do love that the Reds are willing to stick with him and run him out there every fifth day. They know they are not going anywhere this year, so why not let a young pitcher develop in the majors instead of sending him back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues. 

I also like that he is in the pros because Cincinnati is 3-12 in Greene’s starts and it provides a solid betting opportunity. There is certainly some value in betting the Mets straight up today and I might still do it, but the Mets' recent struggles do scare me some. 

New York is 4-6 in its last ten, which is somewhat concerning, but the more alarming number is .213 -- the Mets batting average over that stretch. 

Sure Hunter Greene has given up some runs, but 9.5 is a high total and only five of Greene’s 15 starts have gone over that number. Taijuan Walker has a stellar 2.72 ERA and will keep the Cincinnati offense down, and with New York’s offensive downturn, the under feels like the strongest play. 

Pick: Under 9.5 (-115)

Follow all Josh’s bets HERE